Match Info
NRL - Round 25Date: 20 August 2026, ThursdayLocation: AAMI Park (Melbourne)Referee: Atkins G. (Aus)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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Australia | Fox League, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports, NRL TV |
Canada | fubo Sports Network |
France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1 |
New-zealand | SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 2 |
United-kingdom | Sky Sports Action, Sky Sports+ |
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Melbourne Storm |
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Penrith Panthers |
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1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
3 |
26 |
1.4 |
|
 |
3.4 |
17.5 |
1.34 |
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 |
3.1 |
18 |
1.42 |
|
 |
3.15 |
22.5 |
1.39 |
Watch |
 |
3.12 |
21 |
1.41 |
|
 |
3.15 |
22 |
1.39 |
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Avarage Now (Initially) |
3.15 ↓ (3.35) |
21.17 ↓ (24.02) |
1.39 ↑ (1.35) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 42.50
- The most likely Handicap: 2 (-7)
- The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Melbourne Storm 29.3% | Draw 4.4% | Penrith Panthers 66.4% |
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML EstimationAnalysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:Melbourne Storm has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)Penrith Panthers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melbourne Storm than the current prediction. (-1.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penrith Panthers than the current prediction. (+2.5%)Melbourne Storm - Penrith Panthers Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 18:25 
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Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
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1. Faalogo S.
| 1. Edwards D.
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2. Tuimalatu-Brown S.
| 2. Jenkins T.
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3. Howarth J.
| 3. Tago I.
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4. Meaney N.
| 4. McLean C.
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5. Leo M.
| 5. To'o B.
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6. Munster C.
| 6. Cogger J.
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8. Utoikamanu S.
| 7. Cleary N. (C)
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9. Grant H. (C)
| 8. Leota M.
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10. King J.
| 9. Lussick F.
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11. Blore S.
| 10. Henry L.
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12. Keeley O.
| 11. Papali'i I.
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13. Loiero T.
| 12. Martin L.
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14. Wishart T.
| 13. Smith L.
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| Substitutes |
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7. Toelau T.
| 14. Scott B.
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15. MacDonald A.
| 15. Sorensen S.
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16. Hinchey A.
| 16. Patea L.
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17. Clarke C.
| 17. Phillips B.
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18. Chan J.
| 18. Cole J.
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21. Hetherington J.
| 21. Garner L.
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| Coaches |
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. Bellamy C.
| . Cleary I.
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (0 - 22)
- 3', To'o B. (Try),
- 5', Cleary N. (Conversion Goal),
- 20', Henry L. (Try),
- 22', Cleary N. (Conversion Goal),
- 24', To'o B. (Try),
- 25', Cleary N. (Conversion Goal),
- 30', To'o B. (Try),
- 32', Cleary N. (Missed Conversion),
- 2nd Half (14 - 0)
- 43', Wishart T. (Try),
- 44', Meaney N. (Conversion Goal),
- 55', Howarth J. (Try),
- 57', Meaney N. (Missed Conversion),
- 61', Tuimalatu-Brown S. (Try),
- 62', Meaney N. (Missed Conversion),
Preview
A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 12 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ NRL (Play Offs: )).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 3.Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.Penrith may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days. In this match, Penrith is a strong favorite.In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 341:367. (average 17.1:18.4).Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 177:158. (average 17.7:15.8).
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Australian NRL | | | 03.04.26 | Penrith Panthers - Melbourne Storm | 50:10 | | 14.08.25 | Penrith Panthers - Melbourne Storm | 18:22 OT | | 20.03.25 | Melbourne Storm - Penrith Panthers | 30:24 | | 06.10.24 | Melbourne Storm - Penrith Panthers | 6:14 | | 15.08.24 | Penrith Panthers - Melbourne Storm | 22:24 | | 08.03.24 | Melbourne Storm - Penrith Panthers | 8:0 | | 22.09.23 | Penrith Panthers - Melbourne Storm | 38:4 |
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