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Current Win Probability
St. George Illawarra Dragons 27.1%
Draw 3.8%
Newcastle Knights 69.1%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
33.2%
3.7%
63.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
37.3%
4.2%
56.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
St. George Illawarra Dragons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that St. George Illawarra Dragons's form might have worsened.
Newcastle Knights has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Newcastle Knights's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. George Illawarra Dragons than the current prediction. (+10.2%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for St. George Illawarra Dragons, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newcastle Knights than the current prediction. (-13%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Newcastle Knights, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
St. George Illawarra Dragons - Newcastle Knights Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 21:30
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Gutherson C.
1. Ponga K. (C)
2. Setu T.
2. Young D.
4. Holmes V.
3. Gagai D.
5. Feagai M.
4. Best B.
7. Reed K.
5. Marzhew G.
8. Guler E.
6. Sharpe F.
9. Cook D. (C)
7. Brown D.
10. Couchman T.
8. Saifiti J.
11. Egan D.
9. Crossland P.
13. Stewart H.
10. Mooney T.
14. Kerr J.
11. Lucas D.
19. Sloan T.
12. McEwen J.
20. King-Togia L.
13. Croker M.
Substitutes
12. Couchman R.
14. Smith S.
15. Tonga L.
15. Frizell T.
16. Lawrie B.
16. Saulo P.
17. Halangahu J.
17. Manuleleua F.
18. Flanagan K.
19. Hunt F.
22. Tuipulotu C.
20. Hopwood C.
Coaches
. Young D.
. Holbrook J.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 32)
7', Marzhew G. (Try),
9', Ponga K. (Missed Conversion),
16', Young D. (Try),
18', Young D. (Conversion Goal),
23', Marzhew G. (Try),
25', Ponga K. (Conversion Goal),
29', Best B. (Try),
31', Ponga K. (Conversion Goal),
32', Lucas D. (Try),
32', Ponga K. (Conversion Goal),
36', Young D. (Try),
36', Ponga K. (Missed Conversion),
2nd Half (10 - 12)
43', Stewart H. (Try),
43', Holmes V. (Missed Conversion),
53', Marzhew G. (Try),
55', Ponga K. (Missed Conversion),
57', Marzhew G. (Try),
58', Ponga K. (Missed Conversion),
64', Setu T. (Try),
66', Holmes V. (Conversion Goal),
75', Marzhew G. (Try),
76', Ponga K. (Missed Conversion),
Preview
An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 and 11).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St. George Illawarra won 3.
St. George Illawarra is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).
Newcastle has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
St. George Illawarra may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, Newcastle is a strong favorite.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, St. George Illawarra won 14 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 416:421. (average 20.8:21.1).
Including home matches between the teams, St. George Illawarra won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 248:223. (average 24.8:22.3).
Australia
New-zealand
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Gutherson C. 
Young D. 
Feagai M. 
Brown D. 
Saifiti J. 
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