Match Info

Super Rugby - Round 16

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Waikato Stadium (Hamilton)

Referee: Gardner A. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Rugby
Argentina	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
Peru	Disney+
South-africa	SuperSport Rugby
United-kingdom	Sky Go, Sky Sports+
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Chiefs		Blues

	1	X	2
	1.44	23	2.88
	1.44	26	2.8
	1.43	22.52	3.02	Watch
	1.36	23	3.2
	1.34	23	3.34
	1.48	24	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.57)	23.59 ↑ (18.5)	2.99 ↑ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 58.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-7)

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chiefs
65.2%

Draw
3.9%

Blues
30.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.7%

36.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.6%

4.9%

35.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chiefs has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Chiefs's performance.

Blues has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Blues might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chiefs than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Chiefs that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Blues than the current prediction. (+5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Chiefs - Blues Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Chiefs will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 33:26

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Proffit J.	1. Tupaea M.
2. Thompson T.	2. Mullan J.
3. Dyer G.	3. Renata M.
4. Ah Kuoi N.	4. Beehre J.
5. Lord J.	5. Darry S.
6. Finau S.	6. Barnes T.
7. Brown J.	7. Segner A.
8. Sititi W.	8. Wrampling-Alec M.
9. Ratima C.	9. Nock S.
10. Jacomb J.	10. Perofeta S.
11. Taumoefolau K.	11. Clarke C.
12. Paul R.	12. Ahki P.
13. Rona D.	13. Taele X.
14. Sinkinson D.	14. Lam A.
15. Coombes-Fabling L.	15. Sullivan Z.
Substitutes
16. McAlister B.	16. Oudenryn E.
17. Kumeroa B.	17. Fusitua J.
18. van Staden K.	18. Yates F.
19. Sa F.	19. McWhannell L.
20. Boshier K.	20. Sotutu H.
21. Tahuriorangi T.	21. Christie F.
22. Cook-Savage T.	22. Evans C.
23. Foketi L.	23. Vai C.
Coaches
. Gibbes J.	. Cotter V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (19 - 15)
2', Barnes T. (Try),
3', Sullivan Z. (Conversion Goal),
24', Sullivan Z. (Penalty Goal),
26', Taumoefolau K. (Try),
27', Jacomb J. (Missed Conversion),
31', Thompson T. (Try),
32', Jacomb J. (Conversion Goal),
36', Sinkinson D. (Try),
37', Jacomb J. (Conversion Goal),
38', Lam A. (Try),
40', Sullivan Z. (Missed Conversion),
2nd Half (40 - 19)
44', Renata M. ↓, Yates F. ↑,
45', Sititi W. (Try),
46', Jacomb J. (Conversion Goal),
46', Tupaea M. ↓, Fusitua J. ↑,
46', Mullan J. ↓, Oudenryn E. ↑,
52', Oudenryn E. (Try),
53', Sullivan Z. (Missed Conversion),
53', Nock S. ↓, Christie F. ↑,
53', Thompson T. ↓, McAlister B. ↑,
54', Rona D. ↓, Foketi L. ↑,
54', Sititi W. ↓, Boshier K. ↑,
55', Sinkinson D. (Try),
56', Jacomb J. (Conversion Goal),
56', Wrampling-Alec M. ↓, Sotutu H. ↑,
58', Coombes-Fabling L. (Try),
59', Jacomb J. (Conversion Goal),
59', Lord J. ↓, Sa F. ↑,
59', Beehre J. ↓, McWhannell L. ↑,
62', Ah Kuoi N. (Try),
63', Jacomb J. (Missed Conversion),
63', Ratima C. ↓, Tahuriorangi T. ↑,
64', Ahki P. ↓, Vai C. ↑,
64', Taele X. ↓, Evans C. ↑,
67', Paul R. (Try),
68', Jacomb J. (Conversion Goal),
70', Dyer G. ↓, van Staden K. ↑,
70', Proffit J. ↓, Kumeroa B. ↑,
70', Jacomb J. ↓, Cook-Savage T. ↑,
74', Clarke C. (Try),
74', Sullivan Z. (Conversion Goal),
75', Finau S. (Try),
75', Cook-Savage T. (Conversion Goal),
80+3', Taele X. (Try),
80+3', Sullivan Z. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Super Rugby (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Super Rugby (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chiefs won 3.

Chiefs is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Blues has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Chiefs could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Chiefs will win today's game, with odds of 1.46.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Chiefs won 10 matches, drew 1 match, lost 9 matches, and goals 410:473. (average 20.5:23.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Chiefs won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 203:240. (average 20.3:24).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chiefs Rugby
Super Rugby
22.05.26	Crusaders - Chiefs	36:32 ✺
15.05.26	Chiefs - Highlanders	42:12 ✺
08.05.26	Reds - Chiefs	21:31 ✺
26.04.26	Chiefs - Fijian Drua	42:22 ✺
18.04.26	Chiefs - Hurricanes	22:17 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LWWWW
- Blues Rugby
Super Rugby
16.05.26	Blues - Hurricanes	24:47 ✺
08.05.26	Crusaders - Blues	36:20 ✺
02.05.26	Moana Pasifika - Blues	19:45 ✺
25.04.26	Blues - Reds	36:33 OT ✺
17.04.26	Blues - Highlanders	47:40 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Super Rugby
14.02.26	Blues - Chiefs	15:19
07.06.25	Chiefs - Blues	19:20
15.03.25	Chiefs - Blues	32:31
15.02.25	Blues - Chiefs	14:25
22.06.24	Chiefs - Blues	10:41
01.06.24	Blues - Chiefs	31:17
01.04.23	Chiefs - Blues	20:13

Chiefs - Blues: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide