Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPEAN RUGBY CHAMPIONS CUP - PLAY OFFS - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 2 April 2023, Sunday

Location: Sandy Park (Exeter)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Sports
Italy	Sky Sport Arena
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	BT Sport


	Exeter Chiefs		Montpellier

	1	X	2
	1.67	21	2.3
	1.62	23	2.35
	1.73	19	2.15
	1.72	26	2.2
	1.69	22	2.21
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↑ (1.34)	22.2 ↓ (23)	2.24 ↓ (3.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 51.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Exeter Chiefs
54.7%

Draw
4.2%

Montpellier
41.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.4%

27.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.8%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Exeter Chiefs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Exeter Chiefs's form might have worsened.

Montpellier has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Montpellier's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Exeter Chiefs than the current prediction. (+14.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Exeter Chiefs, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (-13.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Montpellier, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Exeter Chiefs - Montpellier Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Exeter will win (votes: 10 - 66.7%). Montpellier will win (votes: 5 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Exeter: 42.8% – 90.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 28:25

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Preview

Two teams are playing changeable.

Montpellier could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Exeter Chiefs will have a small advantage in this match.

Our prediction for today's Exeter Chiefs to win the game is with odds 1.62.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Exeter Chiefs won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 136-77.

Including matches at home between the teams Exeter Chiefs won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 83-16.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Exeter Chiefs
English Premiership Rugby
26.03.23	Bath - Exeter Chiefs	36:19 ✺
English Premiership Rugby Cup
19.03.23	London Irish - Exeter Chiefs	20:24 OT ✺
English Premiership Rugby
11.03.23	Exeter Chiefs - Newcastle Red Bulls	24:5 ✺
04.03.23	Harlequins - Exeter Chiefs	40:5 ✺
26.02.23	Exeter Chiefs - Sale Sharks	24:22 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LWWLW
- Montpellier Hérault RC
French Top 14
25.03.23	Perpignan - Montpellier	22:23 ✺
04.03.23	Montpellier - Clermont	34:6 ✺
25.02.23	Stade Français - Montpellier	27:17 ✺
18.02.23	Lyon - Montpellier	31:21 ✺
04.02.23	Montpellier - Toulon	18:20 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

European Rugby Champions Cup
23.01.22	Montpellier - Exeter Chiefs	37:26
11.12.21	Exeter Chiefs - Montpellier	42:6
13.01.18	Exeter Chiefs - Montpellier	41:10
22.10.17	Montpellier - Exeter Chiefs	24:27

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