Match Info
Top 14 - Round 17Date: 14 February 2026, SaturdayLocation: Stade Marcel-Deflandre (La Rochelle)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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 France | Canal+ Live 5 |
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La Rochelle |
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Montpellier |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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 |
1.53 |
23 |
2.63 |
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1.55 |
24 |
2.48 |
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1.59 |
23.29 |
2.53 |
 Watch |
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1.57 |
23 |
2.5 |
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1.55 |
26 |
2.52 |
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1.62 |
26 |
2.4 |
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Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.57 ↑
(1.4) |
24.22 ↑
(16.48) |
2.51 ↓
(3.43) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 53.50
- The most likely Handicap: 1 (-5)
- The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
La Rochelle
59.2% | Draw
3.8% | Montpellier
37% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
La Rochelle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that La Rochelle's form might have worsened.Montpellier has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Montpellier's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for La Rochelle than the current prediction. (+12.5%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for La Rochelle, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (-11.5%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Montpellier, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.La Rochelle - Montpellier Predictions
Users Predictions:
La Rochelle will win
(6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): La Rochelle will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.Expected Score (Market Odds): 30:25 
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Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
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1.  Penverne L.
| 1. Forletta E.
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2. Bourgarit P.
| 2.  Uelese J.
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3. Sorin K.
| 3. Hounkpatin W.
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4. Kante-Samba C.
| 4. Chalureau B.
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5. Boudehent P.
| 5. Duguid T.
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6.  Fraindt K.
| 6. Verhaeghe F.
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7.  Botia L.
| 7. Becognee A.
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8. Alldritt G. (C)
| 8.  Vunipola V. (C)
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9. Berjon T.
| 9.  Price A.
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10.  West I.
| 10.  Miotti H.
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11.  Leyds D.
| 11. Moustin M.
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12.  Seuteni U.
| 12. Anyanwu L.
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13. Favre J.
| 13. Cadot A.
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14. Nowell J.
| 14. Ngandebe G.
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15. Pacome U.
| 15. Banks T.
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| Substitutes |
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16.  Sutidze N.
| 16. Tolofua C.
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17. Sclavi J.
| 17. Erdocio B.
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18. Huchet S.
| 18. Tauleigne M.
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19. Andjisseramatchi L.
| 19. Masibaka A.
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20. Le Garrec N.
| 20. Coly L.
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21. Hastoy A.
| 21. Vincent A.
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22. Seguret A.
| 22. Taofifenua D.
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23. Kuntelia A.
| 23. Haouas M.
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (16 - 16)
- 5', West I. (Penalty Goal),
- 8', Leyds D. (Try),
- 9', West I. (Conversion Goal),
- 14', Miotti H. (Penalty Goal),
- 17', Miotti H. (Penalty Goal),
- 20', West I. (Penalty Goal),
- 26', Miotti H. (Penalty Goal),
- 28', West I. (Penalty Goal),
- 34', Miotti H. (Try),
- 35', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),
- 2nd Half (17 - 27)
- 48', Tauleigne M. (Try),
- 49', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),
- 51', Bourgarit P. (Try),
- 54', Miotti H. (Penalty Goal),
- 55', Fraindt K. 🟨,
- 60', Tolofua C. (Try),
- 61', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),
- 67', Masibaka A. (Try),
- 67', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),
- 71', Boudehent P. (Try),
- 72', Hastoy A. (Conversion Goal),
- 72', Duguid T. 🟨,
- 78', Miotti H. (Penalty Goal),
- 80', Boudehent P. (Try),
Preview
A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, La Rochelle won 2.Recent form of La Rochelle has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).Montpellier is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4). In this match, La Rochelle is the team to beat.In the last 20 head-to-head matches, La Rochelle won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 452:505. (average 22.6:25.3).Including home matches between the teams, La Rochelle won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 295:213. (average 29.5:21.3).
Standings
| | Pl | W | D | L | | Pts |
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| 5 | Montpellier | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 141:92 | 14 |
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| 7 | Stade Rochelais | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 116:119 | 13 |
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Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| French Top 14 | | | 04.10.25 | Montpellier - La Rochelle | 37:13 | | 18.05.25 | La Rochelle - Montpellier | 47:18 | | 26.10.24 | Montpellier - La Rochelle | 16:0 | | 03.02.24 | La Rochelle - Montpellier | 18:10 | | 20.08.23 | Montpellier - La Rochelle | 26:15 | | 13.05.23 | Montpellier - La Rochelle | 42:31 | | 03.09.22 | La Rochelle - Montpellier | 26:22 |
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Upcoming Matches
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✺ - difficult match;
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