Match Info

European Rugby Champions Cup - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 3 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Aviva Stadium (Dublin)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby
Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 3
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Czech-republic	CT sport Plus
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Iceland	Viaplay
Ireland	RTE 2, RTE Player
Mexico	Disney+
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	Sky Sport 5
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	Sport TV6
South-africa	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Leinster		Northampton Saints

	1	X	2
	1.03	51	11
	1.04	41	10
	1.04	45	12
	1.04	32.46	12.32	Watch
	1.05	41	10
	1.04	50	14
	1.04	45	12
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.04 ↑ (1.03)	43.64 ↓ (47.04)	11.62 ↓ (12.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 52.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-21)

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Leinster
89.8%

Draw
2.1%

Northampton Saints
8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

90.4%

7.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leinster has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Northampton Saints has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Leinster - Northampton Saints Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Leinster will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 37:16

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Healy C.	1. Iyogun E.
2. Sheehan D.	2. Langdon C.
3. Furlong T.	3. Davidson T.
4. Snyman R.	4. Mayanavanua T.
5. McCarthy J.	5. Coles A.
6. Deegan M.	6. Kemeny J.
7. van der Flier J.	7. Pollock H.
8. Sweetman-Doris C. (C)	8. Augustus J.
9. Gibson-Park J.	9. Mitchell A.
10. Prendergast S.	10. Smith F.
11. Lowe J.	11. Litchfield T.
12. Henshaw R.	12. Hutchinson R.
13. Ringrose G.	13. Dingwall F. (C)
14. O'Brien T.	14. Freeman T.
15. Keenan H.	15. Ramm J.
Substitutes
16. Kelleher R.	16. Walker H.
17. Porter A.	17. West T.
18. Slimani R.	18. Millar-Mills E.
19. Baird R.	19. Lockett T.
20. Conan J.	20. Munga C.
21. McGrath L.	21. Scott-Young A.
22. Byrne R.	22. James T.
23. Barrett J.	23. Seabrook T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (15 - 27)
8', Freeman T. (Try),
9', Smith F. (Conversion Goal),
14', Prendergast S. (Penalty Goal),
18', O'Brien T. (Try),
23', Smith F. (Penalty Goal),
26', van der Flier J. (Try),
26', Prendergast S. (Conversion Goal),
27', Langdon C. 🟨,
29', Pollock H. (Try),
30', Smith F. (Conversion Goal),
36', Freeman T. (Try),
38', Smith F. (Try),
2nd Half (19 - 10)
47', Sweetman-Doris C. (Try),
48', Prendergast S. (Conversion Goal),
56', Smith F. (Penalty Goal),
59', van der Flier J. (Try),
63', Ramm J. (Try),
64', Smith F. (Conversion Goal),
68', Kemeny J. 🟨,
70', Lowe J. (Try),
71', Prendergast S. (Conversion Goal),
80', Coles A. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leinster won 5.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Northampton Saints may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Leinster is the obvious favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Leinster won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 294:121. (average 36.8:15.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Leinster won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 174:88. (average 34.8:17.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leinster Rugby
United Rugby Championship
26.04.25	Llanelli Scarlets - Leinster	35:22 ✺
19.04.25	Leinster - Ulster	41:17 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
11.04.25	Leinster - Glasgow Warriors	52:0 ✺
05.04.25	Leinster - Harlequins	62:0 ✺
United Rugby Championship
29.03.25	Sharks - Leinster	7:10 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 LWWWW
- Northampton Saints
English Premiership Rugby
26.04.25	Northampton Saints - Bristol Rugby	48:31 ✺
18.04.25	Newcastle Red Bulls - Northampton Saints	34:35 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
12.04.25	Northampton Saints - Castres	51:16 ✺
04.04.25	Northampton Saints - Clermont	46:24 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
28.03.25	Sale Sharks - Northampton Saints	27:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

European Rugby Champions Cup
04.05.24	Leinster - Northampton Saints	20:17
19.12.20	Leinster - Northampton Saints	35:19
14.12.19	Leinster - Northampton Saints	50:21
07.12.19	Northampton Saints - Leinster	16:43
17.12.16	Leinster - Northampton Saints	60:13
09.12.16	Northampton Saints - Leinster	10:37
Heineken Cup
14.12.13	Leinster - Northampton Saints	9:18

Upcoming Matches