Match Info

European Rugby Champions Cup - Round 3

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Aviva Stadium (Dublin)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Rugby, SuperSport Variety 1
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
Portugal	Sport TV5
South-africa	SuperSport Rugby
United-kingdom	FloRugby.com, FloSports app, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player


	Leinster		La Rochelle

	1	X	2
	1.29	34	3.75
	1.07	41	8
	1.24	27	4
	1.25	26	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.21 ↑ (1.04)	32 ↓ (44)	4.94 ↓ (9.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 51.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-11)

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leinster
77.9%

Draw
3%

La Rochelle
19.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

88.2%

2.1%

9.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leinster has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Leinster's form might have worsened.

La Rochelle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting La Rochelle's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Leinster - La Rochelle Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Leinster will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 32:21

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. McCarthy P.	1. Wardi R.
2. Sheehan D.	2. Latu S.
3. Clarkson T.	3. Atonio U.
4. McCarthy J.	4. Kante-Samba C.
5. Ryan J.	5. Skelton W.
6. Conan J.	6. Jegou O.
7. van der Flier J.	7. Botia L.
8. Sweetman-Doris C. (C)	8. Alldritt G. (C)
9. Gibson-Park J.	9. Le Garrec N.
10. Prendergast S.	10. West I.
11. Kenny J.	11. Niniashvili D.
12. Henshaw R.	12. Daunivucu S.
13. Ioane R.	13. Favre J.
14. O'Brien T.	14. Nowell J.
15. Frawley C.	15. Leyds D.
Substitutes
16. Kelleher R.	16. Lespiaucq-Brettes Q.
17. Cahir J.	17. Penverne L.
18. Sparrow A.	18. Kuntelia A.
19. Mangan D.	19. Douglas K.
20. Deegan M.	20. Fraindt K.
21. McGrath L.	21. Berjon T.
22. Byrne H.	22. Hastoy A.
23. Osborne A.	23. Bollengier N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (12 - 7)
3', Kenny J. (Try),
9', Kenny J. (Try),
10', Prendergast S. (Conversion Goal),
13', O'Brien T. 🟨,
29', Niniashvili D. (Try),
30', Le Garrec N. (Conversion Goal),
37', McCarthy J. 🟨,
2nd Half (13 - 17)
55', Le Garrec N. (Penalty Goal),
58', West I. (Try),
59', Le Garrec N. (Conversion Goal),
66', van der Flier J. (Try),
69', Henshaw R. (Try),
76', West I. (Try),
78', Le Garrec N. (Conversion Goal),
80+3', Byrne H. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leinster won 3.

Leinster is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

La Rochelle has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Leinster is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Leinster won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 142:119. (average 23.7:19.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Leinster won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 87:64. (average 29:21.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leinster Rugby
United Rugby Championship
03.01.26	Leinster - Connacht	52:17 ✺
27.12.25	Munster - Leinster	8:13 ✺
19.12.25	Leinster - Ulster	24:20 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
12.12.25	Leicester Tigers - Leinster	15:23 ✺
06.12.25	Leinster - Harlequins	52:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WWWWW
- La Rochelle
French Top 14
04.01.26	La Rochelle - Toulon	66:0 ✺
28.12.25	Toulouse - La Rochelle	60:14 ✺
20.12.25	La Rochelle - Aviron Bayonnais	49:17 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
13.12.25	Stormers - La Rochelle	42:21 ✺
06.12.25	La Rochelle - Leicester Tigers	39:20 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

European Rugby Champions Cup
12.01.25	La Rochelle - Leinster	14:16
13.04.24	Leinster - La Rochelle	40:13
10.12.23	La Rochelle - Leinster	9:16
20.05.23	Leinster - La Rochelle	26:27
28.05.22	Leinster - La Rochelle	21:24
02.05.21	La Rochelle - Leinster	32:23

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