Match Info

United Rugby Championship - Round 12

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Ellis Park Stadium (Johannesburg)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player


	Lions		Stormers

	1	X	2
	2.7	21	1.5
	2.65	24	1.5
	2.52	22.69	1.58	Watch
	2.63	21	1.5
	2.9	24	1.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.68 ↓ (2.7)	22.54 ↑ (19.33)	1.5 (1.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 55.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-7)

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lions
34.5%

Draw
4.1%

Stormers
61.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34%

4.8%

61.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.6%

4.7%

61.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lions has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Stormers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lions than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stormers than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Lions - Stormers Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -4.5 - Stormers (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Stormers (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 25:32

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (14 - 0)
2nd Half (10 - 10)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lions won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Stormers may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Stormers will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lions won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 483:556. (average 24.2:27.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Lions won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 276:280. (average 30.7:31.1).

Outrights of United Rugby Championship for now

Stormers: 16.79%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
3	Lions	2	2	0	0	62:45	9
8	Stormers	2	1	0	1	42:32	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lions Rugby
United Rugby Championship
21.02.26	Lions - Sharks	34:22 ✺
31.01.26	Lions - Blue Bulls	17:52 ✺
23.01.26	Ospreys - Lions	24:24 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
17.01.26	Perpignan - Lions	20:20 ✺
10.01.26	Lions - Lyon	42:33 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WLTTW
- Stormers Rugby
United Rugby Championship
31.01.26	Sharks - Stormers	36:24 ✺
24.01.26	Stormers - Sharks	19:30 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
17.01.26	Stormers - Leicester Tigers	39:26 ✺
11.01.26	Harlequins - Stormers	61:10 ✺
United Rugby Championship
03.01.26	Stormers - Blue Bulls	13:8 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
20.12.25	Stormers - Lions	34:27
15.02.25	Lions - Stormers	30:23
21.12.24	Stormers - Lions	29:10
01.06.24	Stormers - Lions	29:24
21.10.23	Lions - Stormers	33:35
31.12.22	Stormers - Lions	40:8
29.10.22	Lions - Stormers	22:31

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