Match Info

WORLD: United Rugby Championship - Round 3

Date: 4 October 2024, Friday

Location: Parc y Scarlets (Llanelli)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Variety 1
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Iceland	Viaplay
Ireland	TG4 app, TG4 Ireland
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport, BBC Two, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player, URC


	Llanelli Scarlets		Connacht

	1	X	2
	3.1	21	1.4
	3.25	21	1.36
	3.05	22	1.4
	3.18	23.95	1.4	Watch
	2.8	23	1.44
	3.28	20	1.37
	3.05	22	1.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.1 ↑ (2.92)	21.85 ↑ (21.3)	1.4 ↓ (1.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 48.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-7)

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Llanelli Scarlets
29.7%

Draw
4.2%

Connacht
66.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.6%

4.3%

64%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Llanelli Scarlets has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Connacht has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Llanelli Scarlets - Connacht Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 21:28

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hepburn A.	1. Buckley D.
2. Elias R.	2. Heffernan D.
3. Thomas H.	3. Bealham F.
4. Lousi S.	4. Murray N.
5. Douglas M.	5. O'Connor D.
6. Macleod J.	6. Murphy J.
7. Davis D.	7. Oliver C.
8. Plumtree T.	8. Prenderghast C.
9. Davies G.	9. Murphy B.
10. Costelow S.	10. Carty J.
11. Murray B.	11. O'Conor P.
12. James E.	12. Aki B.
13. Williams J.	13. Forde C.
14. Rogers T.	14. Hansen M.
15. Nicholas I.	15. Cordero S.
Substitutes
16. van der Merwe M.	16. Tierney-Martin D.
17. Mathias K.	17. Dooley P.
18. Wainwright S.	18. Lasisi T.
19. Craig A.	19. Dowling O.
20. Tuipulotu C.	20. Boyle P.
21. Jones E.	21. Blade C.
22. Lloyd I.	22. Hawkshaw D.
23. Page M.	23. Bolton S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (14 - 21)
10', O'Conor P. (Try),
11', Carty J. (Conversion Goal),
12', Rogers T. 🟨,
16', Hansen M. (Try),
17', Carty J. (Conversion Goal),
20', Aki B. 🟨,
21', Davies G. (Try),
22', Costelow S. (Conversion Goal),
29', Davies G. (Try),
30', Costelow S. (Conversion Goal),
38', Murphy B. (Try),
39', Carty J. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (9 - 3)
42', Costelow S. (Penalty Goal),
52', Lloyd I. (Penalty Goal),
73', Costelow S. (Penalty Goal),
77', Forde C. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Scarlets won 2.

In this match Connacht is a favorite.

Last 17 head-to-head matches Scarlets won 11 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 388:370 (average 22.8:21.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Scarlets won 8 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 245:188 (average 27.2:20.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Llanelli Scarlets
United Rugby Championship
28.09.24	Llanelli Scarlets - Cardiff Rugby	15:24 ✺
21.09.24	Benetton Treviso - Llanelli Scarlets	20:20 ✺
01.06.24	Llanelli Scarlets - Newport Gwent Dragons	32:15 ✺
17.05.24	Zebre - Llanelli Scarlets	18:32 ✺
11.05.24	Llanelli Scarlets - Ulster	20:31 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LTWWL
- Connacht Rugby
United Rugby Championship
28.09.24	Connacht - Sharks	36:30 ✺
21.09.24	Munster - Connacht	35:33 ✺
31.05.24	Leinster - Connacht	33:7 ✺
18.05.24	Connacht - Stormers	12:16 ✺
11.05.24	Munster - Connacht	47:12 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
02.03.24	Connacht - Llanelli Scarlets	26:10
21.10.22	Connacht - Llanelli Scarlets	36:14
19.02.22	Llanelli Scarlets - Connacht	23:29
22.03.21	Llanelli Scarlets - Connacht	41:36
14.11.20	Connacht - Llanelli Scarlets	14:20
28.09.19	Llanelli Scarlets - Connacht	18:10
22.09.18	Connacht - Llanelli Scarlets	33:20

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