Match Info

Heartland Championships - 5th-8th places - Final

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday


	North Otago		Horowhenua-Kapiti

	1	X	2
	1.42	30	2.8
	1.46	28	2.75
	1.46	28	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↑ (1.44)	28.67 ↓ (29)	2.77 ↓ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 63.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-7)

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

North Otago
63.6%

Draw
3.2%

Horowhenua-Kapiti
33.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.8%

3.2%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.2%

3.1%

32.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

North Otago has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Horowhenua-Kapiti has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for North Otago than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Horowhenua-Kapiti than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

North Otago - Horowhenua Kapiti Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 36:29

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (19 - 19)
2nd Half (45 - 28)

Preview

North Otago is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Horowhenua-Kapiti has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, North Otago is considered a favorite.

We predict that North Otago will win today's game, with odds of 1.42.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, North Otago won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 93:101. (average 23.3:25.3).

Including home matches between the teams, North Otago won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 74:79. (average 24.7:26.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- North Otago Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
10.10.25	North Otago - Poverty Bay	48:46 ✺
03.10.25	Mid Canterbury - North Otago	47:7 ✺
26.09.25	North Otago - South Canterbury	32:29 ✺
19.09.25	West Coast - North Otago	31:38 ✺
12.09.25	North Otago - Poverty Bay	59:33 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 WLWWW
- Horowhenua-Kapiti Rugby Football Union
Heartland Championships
10.10.25	Whanganui - Horowhenua-Kapiti	18:40 ✺
03.10.25	South Canterbury - Horowhenua-Kapiti	31:21 ✺
26.09.25	Horowhenua-Kapiti - Wairarapa Bush	22:21 ✺
19.09.25	Whanganui - Horowhenua-Kapiti	27:21 ✺
12.09.25	Horowhenua-Kapiti - West Coast	27:26 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Heartland Championships
16.08.24	North Otago - Horowhenua-Kapiti	14:16
14.09.18	North Otago - Horowhenua-Kapiti	24:27
25.08.17	Horowhenua-Kapiti - North Otago	22:19
09.09.16	North Otago - Horowhenua-Kapiti	36:36

North Otago - Horowhenua-Kapiti: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide