Match Info

European Rugby Champions Cup - Play Offs - Final

Date: 24 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Franklin's Gardens (Northampton)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby, TV5 Monde Maghreb-Orient
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	Premier Sports Rugby Asia
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, France 2, TV5 Monde Europe
Germany	More Than Sports TV
Iceland	Viaplay
Ireland	RTE 2, RTE Player
Malta	TSN Malta 5
Mexico	Disney+
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	Sky Sport 1
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Polsat Sport Fight
Portugal	Sport TV2
Romania	Digi Sport 4
Slovakia	JOJ Play, JOJ Sport 2
South-africa	SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport Rugby
South-america	TV5 Monde Amerique Latine
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, FloSports app, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player, S4C Clic, S4C Digital
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Northampton Saints		Bordeaux Bègles

	1	X	2
	3.1	26	1.4
	3.4	34	1.36
	3.2	25	1.39
	3.15	28	1.38	Watch
	3.25	26	1.36
	3.09	26	1.39
	3.2	25	1.39
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.2 ↓ (3.24)	27.14 ↑ (19.45)	1.38 ↓ (1.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 56.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-8)

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Northampton Saints
29.1%

Draw
3.4%

Bordeaux Bègles
67.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.8%

4.8%

66.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.6%

5.4%

74.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Northampton Saints has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Bordeaux Bègles has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Northampton Saints than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bordeaux Bègles than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bordeaux Bègles could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Northampton Saints - Bordeaux Bègles Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Bordeaux Bègles will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Northampton Saints (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Bordeaux Bègles (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 24:32

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Iyogun E.	1. Poirot J.
2. Langdon C.	2. Lamothe M.
3. Davidson T.	3. Falatea S.
4. Mayanavanua T.	4. Coleman A.
5. Lockett T.	5. Cazeaux C.
6. Coles A.	6. Diaby M.
7. Kemeny J.	7. Petti G.
8. Pollock H.	8. Samu P.
9. Mitchell A.	9. Lucu M. (C)
10. Smith F.	10. Jalibert M.
11. Ramm J.	11. Bielle-Biarrey L.
12. Hutchinson R.	12. Moefana Y.
13. Dingwall F. (C)	13. Depoortere N.
14. Freeman T.	14. Penaud D.
15. Furbank G.	15. Buros R.
Substitutes
16. Wright C.	16. Sa C.
17. Haffar T.	17. Boniface U.
18. Millar-Mills E.	18. Tameifuna B.
19. Prowse E.	19. Bochaton P.
20. Scott-Young A.	20. Vergnes-Taillefer B.
21. James T.	21. Gazzotti M.
22. Litchfield T.	22. Retiere A.
23. Sleightholme O.	23. Janse van Rensburg R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (20 - 20)
2', Coles A. (Try),
3', Smith F. (Conversion Goal),
6', Penaud D. (Try),
21', Coleman A. (Try),
22', Jalibert M. (Conversion Goal),
25', Smith F. (Penalty Goal),
29', Jalibert M. (Penalty Goal),
30', Diaby M. 🟨,
33', Smith F. (Penalty Goal),
36', Freeman T. 🟨,
37', Penaud D. (Try),
40+1', Coles A. (Try),
40+1', Smith F. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (0 - 8)
44', Prowse E. 🟨,
45', Lucu M. (Penalty Goal),
56', Cazeaux C. (Try),

Preview

Northampton Saints is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Bordeaux Bègles has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Bordeaux Bègles is a strong favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Northampton Saints won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:16.

Including home match between the teams, Northampton Saints won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:16.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Northampton Saints
English Premiership Rugby
17.05.25	Northampton Saints - Saracens	28:24 ✺
11.05.25	Exeter Chiefs - Northampton Saints	42:14 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
03.05.25	Leinster - Northampton Saints	34:37 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
26.04.25	Northampton Saints - Bristol Rugby	48:31 ✺
18.04.25	Newcastle Red Bulls - Northampton Saints	34:35 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 32.2 WLWWW
- Union Bordeaux Bègles
French Top 14
17.05.25	Bordeaux Bègles - Castres	34:29 ✺
11.05.25	Montpellier - Bordeaux Bègles	46:27 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
04.05.25	Bordeaux Bègles - Toulouse	35:18 ✺
French Top 14
26.04.25	Bordeaux Bègles - La Rochelle	10:21 ✺
19.04.25	Section Paloise - Bordeaux Bègles	22:26 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

European Rugby Champions Cup
11.12.20	Northampton Saints - Bordeaux Bègles	12:16

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