Match Info

Challenge Cup - Round 1

Date: 6 December 2025, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Sports MAX 4


	Stade Français		Cardiff Rugby

	1	X	2
	1.2	34	4.5
	1.16	28	5.2
	1.76	19.91	2.16	Watch
	1.17	29	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↑ (1.25)	27.73 ↑ (26)	4.22 ↑ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 47.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-12)

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stade Français
73.5%

Draw
3.5%

Cardiff Rugby
23%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Stade Français have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

The chances for Cardiff Rugby have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Stade Français - Cardiff Rugby Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Stade Français will win (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 30:18

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
. Gabrillagues P.	. Smit C.
. Ibo M.	. Young M.
1. Abramishvili S.	2. Lloyd E.
2. Nicotera G.	4. McNally J.
4. Azagoh P.	6. Lawrence A.
7. Chapuis R.	7. Basham T.
9. Abadie P.	11. Stephens I.
10. Foursans-Bourdette L.	12. Emanuel S.
11. Etien L.	14. Grady M.
12. Delbouis J.	16. Lloyd E.
13. Marchant J.	17. Barratt R.
14. Laloi C.	18. Wainwright S.
18. Asi B.	19. Thornton R.
19. Halaifonua T.	20. Botham J.
22. Tanga Mangene Y.	22. Bevan E.
Substitutes
. Alo-Emile M.	. Davies I.
. Jonas J.	. Evans E.
. Nene N.	. Hughes D.
. Turagacoke S.	. Sebastian J.
8. Scelzo J. M.	. Wilde H.
16. Garcia A.	5. Nott G.
17. Iscaro J.	21. Thomas D.
20. Motassi T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (5 - 10)
17', Ibo M. (Try),
24', Stephens I. (Try),
34', Young M. (Try),
2nd Half (33 - 7)
42', Halaifonua T. (Try),
42', Foursans-Bourdette L. (Conversion Goal),
49', Ibo M. (Try),
59', Scelzo J. M. (Try),
60', Foursans-Bourdette L. (Conversion Goal),
63', Foursans-Bourdette L. (Try),
64', Foursans-Bourdette L. (Conversion Goal),
72', Laloi C. (Try),
73', Foursans-Bourdette L. (Conversion Goal),
75', Sebastian J. (Try),
75', Wilde H. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Stade Français has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Cardiff may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Stade Français is the clear favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Stade Français won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 46:21. (average 23:10.5).

Including home match between the teams, Stade Français won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 46:21.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Français
French Top 14
29.11.25	Clermont - Stade Français	36:32 ✺
23.11.25	Stade Français - Toulon	51:24 ✺
01.11.25	Toulouse - Stade Français	29:17 ✺
25.10.25	Stade Français - Montpellier	35:12 ✺
18.10.25	Castres - Stade Français	29:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LWLWL
- Cardiff Rugby
United Rugby Championship
29.11.25	Zebre - Cardiff Rugby	14:29 ✺
25.10.25	Cardiff Rugby - Edinburgh	20:19 ✺
17.10.25	Newport Gwent Dragons - Cardiff Rugby	17:24 ✺
11.10.25	Cardiff Rugby - Connacht	14:8 ✺
04.10.25	Munster - Cardiff Rugby	23:20 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Challenge Cup Rugby
20.12.20	Cardiff Rugby - Stade Français	Cardiff Blues awarded
European Rugby Champions Cup
19.05.17	Stade Français - Cardiff Rugby	46:21

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