Match Info

BRAZIL: SERIE B - ROUND 12

Date: 9 June 2023, Friday

Location: Estadio Maria Lamas Farache (Natal)

Referee: Antero J. (Bra)


	ABC		Chapecoense

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.05	2.95	3.7
	2.14	2.9	3.65
	2.2	3.07	3.95
	2.1	3	3.7
	2.11	3.16	3.74	Watch
	2.1	3.05	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↓ (2.59)	3.02 ↑ (2.88)	3.72 ↑ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

ABC
44%

Draw
30.9%

Chapecoense
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.4%

31.8%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.5%

30.8%

31.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

ABC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in ABC's performance.

Chapecoense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Chapecoense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for ABC than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with ABC that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Chapecoense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.5%	31.8%	13.6%

ABC - Chapecoense Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. ABC will win (votes: 12 - 54.5%). Chapecoense will win (votes: 3 - 13.6%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 31.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for ABC: 33.7% – 75.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
90. Wellington (G) 17. Richardson 15. Afonso 4. Habraao 30. Jhonnathan 11. Fabio Costa 20. Ramon 28. Wallace 75. Maycon Douglas 10. Thonny Anderson 9. Felipe Garcia	12. Joao Paulo (G) 15. Ronei (C) 30. Rafael Ribeiro 32. Rodrigo Freitas 80. Mancha 55. Gustavo Cazanotti 22. Bruno 25. Siles P. 94. Felipe Ferreira 10. Alisson Farias 77. Richard
Substitutes
55. Bruno Lima 5. Gustavo Hebling 8. Jean Patrick 27. Junior Todinho 12. Matheus Refundini (G) 88. Romario 14. Wellington Reis 31. Welliton	4. Bruno Leonardo 23. Cleylton 70. Dudu Vieira 2. Felipe Albuquerque 7. Giovanni Pavani 35. Lucas Alves 11. Maxwell 13. Neto 98. Tiepo (G)
Coaches
Aal A.	Fuchs A.

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

ABC is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Chapecoense has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

ABC will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in ABC: Alemao (Injury) Daniel Vancan (Injury) Gedeilson (Injury) Jean Patrick (Injury) Walfrido (Injury)

There will not play in Chapecoense: Douglas Borel (Injury) Leo (Injury) Mauricio (Injury)

There are questionable in ABC: Lucas Tocantins (Injury)

Last 4 head-to-head matches ABC won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7-8.

Including matches at home between the teams ABC won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ABC FC
Brazilian Serie B
06.06.23	Ponte Preta - ABC	0:0 ✺
03.06.23	ABC - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:1 ✺
28.05.23	Sport Recife - ABC	4:1 ✺
23.05.23	ABC - Tombense	1:0 ✺
20.05.23	Sampaio Corrêa - ABC	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TLLWL
- Chapecoense-SC
Brazilian Serie B
06.06.23	Chapecoense - Vila Nova	0:1 ✺
02.06.23	Ceará - Chapecoense	2:0 ✺
29.05.23	Chapecoense - Sampaio Corrêa	0:1 ✺
24.05.23	Guarani - Chapecoense	3:3 ✺
21.05.23	Chapecoense - Juventude	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Copa do Brasil
09.06.21	ABC - Chapecoense	3:0
02.06.21	Chapecoense - ABC	3:1
Brazilian Serie B
21.09.13	ABC - Chapecoense	2:0
07.06.13	Chapecoense - ABC	5:1

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