Match Info

BRAZIL: COPA DO BRASIL - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 13 April 2023, Thursday

Location: Estadio Maria Lamas Farache (Natal)

Referee: Claus R. (Bra)


	ABC		Grêmio

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.2	2.05	Watch
	3.6	3.1	1.95
	4	3.2	1.85
	3.66	3.16	1.91
	3.9	3	1.95
	3.96	3.28	1.93
	3.8	3.3	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.82 ↓ (5.33)	3.18 ↓ (3.33)	1.94 ↑ (1.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

ABC
24%

Draw
28.8%

Grêmio
47.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.2%

27.5%

55.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.1%

33.5%

67.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

ABC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in ABC's performance.

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Grêmio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for ABC than the current prediction. (-9.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with ABC that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+20.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Grêmio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	12.5%	50%

ABC - Grêmio Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. ABC will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Grêmio will win (votes: 4 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Grêmio: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

1st leg.

Instantly two teams are in a excellent shape.

ABC could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Grêmio will have a mini benefit in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ABC FC
Brazilian Campeonato Potiguar
09.04.23	Santa Cruz de Natal - ABC	0:1 ✺
05.04.23	ABC - Potiguar	2:0 ✺
02.04.23	América RN - ABC	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
30.03.23	Sport Recife - ABC	1:0 ✺
26.03.23	ABC - Náutico Capibaribe	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWWLW
- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
08.04.23	Grêmio - Caxias	1:0 ✺
01.04.23	Caxias - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
25.03.23	Grêmio - Ypiranga	3:1 penalties ✺
19.03.23	Ypiranga - Grêmio	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
16.03.23	Grêmio - Ferroviário Fortaleza	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WTWLW

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