Match Info

EUROPE: CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - QUALIFICATION - SEMI-FINALS

Date: 19 August 2023, Saturday

Location: OPAP Arena (Athens)

Referee: Eskas E. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	MAX Sport


	AEK Athens		Dinamo Zagreb

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.5	4.5	Watch
	1.83	3.6	4.33
	1.82	3.55	4.4
	1.85	3.6	4.25
	1.83	3.64	4.66
	1.75	3.3	4
	1.84	3.62	4.2
	1.88	3.5	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (2.4)	3.54 ↑ (3.28)	4.36 ↑ (2.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AEK Athens
51.7%

Draw
26.7%

Dinamo Zagreb
21.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

28.6%

32.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

28.6%

32.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AEK Athens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in AEK Athens's performance.

Dinamo Zagreb has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Dinamo Zagreb might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AEK Athens than the current prediction. (-12.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with AEK Athens that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dinamo Zagreb than the current prediction. (+10.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Dinamo Zagreb could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80.7%	8%	11.4%

AEK Athens - Dinamo Zagreb Predictions

Users Predictions: 88 users predict this event. AEK will win (votes: 71 - 80.7%). Dinamo Zagreb will win (votes: 10 - 11.4%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for AEK: 72.5% – 88.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Stankovic C. (G) 12. Rota L. 21. Vida D. 2. Moukoudi H. 28. Hajsafi E. 6. Jonsson J. 4. Szymanski D. (C) 5. Amrabat N. 10. Zuber S. 13. Pineda O. 7. Garcia L.	40. Livakovic D. (C) 2. Moharrami S. 13. Ristovski S. 37. Sutalo J. 14. Ljubicic R. 31. Bulat M. 27. Misic J. 77. Spikic D. 15. Mykhaylichenko B. 7. Ivanusec L. 9. Petkovic B.
Substitutes
11. Araujo S. 30. Athanasiadis G. (G) 19. Eliasson N. 8. Gacinovic M. 25. Galanopoulos K. 53. Macheras T. 20. Mantalos P. 24. Mitoglou G. 3. Mohammadi M. 70. Pizarro R. 29. Sidibe D. 9. van Weert T.	10. Baturina M. 6. Bernauer M. 18. Drmic J. 11. Emreli M. 30. Kaneko T. 42. Lukanic L. 20. Marin A. 33. Nevistic I. (G) 55. Peric D. 41. Rukavina G. 25. Sucic P. 4. Sutalo B.
Coaches
Almeyda M.	Biscan I.

Preview

1st leg.

Instantly two teams are in a excellent shape.

AEK could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently AEK have a series of guest games.

AEK will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AEK Athens
UEFA Champions League
15.08.23	Dinamo Zagreb - AEK Athens	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
30.07.23	Trabzonspor - AEK Athens	1:3 ✺
23.07.23	Volos - AEK Athens	0:3 ✺
13.07.23	AEK Athens - Shakhtar Donetsk	5:0 ✺
08.07.23	Royal Antwerp - AEK Athens	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.1 WWWWW
- Dinamo Zagreb
UEFA Champions League
15.08.23	Dinamo Zagreb - AEK Athens	1:2 ✺
Croatian HNL
05.08.23	Dinamo Zagreb - Gorica	0:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
02.08.23	Astana - Dinamo Zagreb	0:2 ✺
Croatian HNL
29.07.23	Istra 1961 - Dinamo Zagreb	0:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
25.07.23	Dinamo Zagreb - Astana	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
15.08.23	Dinamo Zagreb - AEK Athens	1:2

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