Match Info

FA Cup - 1/128-finals

Date: 1 November 2025, Saturday

Location: The Cherry Red Records Stadium (London)


	AFC Wimbledon		Gateshead

	1	X	2
	1.33	5	7.5
	1.35	5.4	7.9
	2.75	2.89	2.74	Watch
	1.36	4.99	7.48	Watch
	1.37	5	6.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↑ (1.34)	4.66 ↓ (4.75)	6.42 ↓ (6.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AFC Wimbledon
62.3%

Draw
21.8%

Gateshead
15.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.8%

19.1%

13%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.6%

18.6%

12.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AFC Wimbledon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that AFC Wimbledon's form might have worsened.

Gateshead has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AFC Wimbledon than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for AFC Wimbledon, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gateshead than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

AFC Wimbledon - Gateshead Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bishop N. (G) 26. Harbottle R. 31. Lewis J. 6. Johnson R. 29. Sasu A. 12. Smith A. 4. Reeves J. (C) 8. Maycock C. 3. Seddon S. 16. Hackford A. 9. Bugiel O.	1. Brooks T. (G) 2. Johnson C. 15. Bakare I. 34. Melbourne M. 3. Ferguson D. (C) 22. Edwards C. 20. John F. 17. Home J. 7. Adom K. 14. Nouble F. 32. Chapman H.
Substitutes
2. Asiimwe N. 15. Bauer P. 11. Browne M. 21. Hippolyte M. 5. Hutchinson S. 18. McCoy-Splatt D. 20. McDonnell J. (G) 33. Ogundere I. 7. Orsi-Dadomo D.	35. Bone C. 10. Butterfield J. 6. Flint W. 18. Grayson J. 21. Hurst K. 13. Leech P. (G) 27. Pennant K. 9. Telford D. 31. Williams B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
20', 0 - 1, Adom K. ⚽, Nouble F. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Harbottle R. ↓, Ogundere I. ↑,
46', Bugiel O. ↓, Orsi-Dadomo D. ↑,
51', 0 - 2, John F. ⚽,
59', Hackford A. ↓, Hippolyte M. ↑,
60', Maycock C. ↓, Browne M. ↑,
61', Brooks T. 🟨,
64', Melbourne M. 🟨,
71', Chapman H. ↓, Hurst K. ↑,
72', Melbourne M. ↓, Grayson J. ↑,
79', Smith A. ↓, McCoy-Splatt D. ↑,
84', Johnson C. ↓, Flint W. ↑,
88', Nouble F. ↓, Pennant K. ↑,
89', Adom K. ↓, Williams B. ↑,
90+4', Ferguson D. 🟨,

Preview

Wimbledon is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Gateshead has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Gateshead may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Wimbledon is the undeniable favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Wimbledon
English League One
25.10.25	AFC Wimbledon - Burton Albion	0:1 ✺
18.10.25	Plymouth Argyle - AFC Wimbledon	1:2 ✺
11.10.25	AFC Wimbledon - Port Vale	1:1 ✺
04.10.25	Blackpool - AFC Wimbledon	0:2 ✺
27.09.25	AFC Wimbledon - Wycombe Wanderers	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.2 LWTWW
- Gateshead
English National League
25.10.25	Gateshead - Truro City	2:2 ✺
English National League Cup
21.10.25	Gateshead - Sunderland U21	2:1 penalties ✺
English National League
18.10.25	Brackley Town - Gateshead	0:0 ✺
English FA Cup
11.10.25	Aveley - Gateshead	0:3 ✺
English National League
04.10.25	Gateshead - Boston United	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TWTWL

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