Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE TWO - ROUND 39

Date: 1 April 2023, Saturday

Location: Plough Lane (London)

Referee: Young A. (Eng)


	AFC Wimbledon		Rochdale

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.25	3.4
	2.1	3.3	3.4
	2.15	3.3	3.3
	2.13	3.48	3.62
	2.15	3.2	3.4
	2.1	3.42	3.46	Watch
	2.1	3.2	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↑ (1.96)	3.31 ↑ (3.26)	3.41 ↓ (3.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AFC Wimbledon
44.1%

Draw
28.4%

Rochdale
27.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.9%

28.7%

23.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.8%

28.2%

23%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AFC Wimbledon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Rochdale has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AFC Wimbledon than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rochdale than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	0%	37.5%

AFC Wimbledon - Rochdale Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Wimbledon will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Rochdale will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Wimbledon: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 16 and 24 in the zone Relegation ~ National League).

Wimbledon has the most likely position - 17 (18.48%), project points - 55, currently - 46, a very small chance of relegated (<1%), a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), a very small chance of promoted (<1%), not chance of win league.

Rochdale has the most likely position - 24 (82.47%), project points - 34, currently - 26, a very good chance of relegated (98%), not chance of prom. playoffs.

This event has very small quality 7, very small importance 5, very small match rating 6. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Wimbledon won 4.

Wimbledon is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Rochdale is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Wimbledon could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Wimbledon will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Wimbledon won 7 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 23-19.

Including matches at home between the teams Wimbledon won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 11-12.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Wimbledon
English League Two
28.03.23	AFC Wimbledon - Walsall	2:0 ✺
25.03.23	Barrow - AFC Wimbledon	2:1 ✺
18.03.23	AFC Wimbledon - Crawley Town	0:1 ✺
14.03.23	Newport County - AFC Wimbledon	1:1 ✺
11.03.23	Doncaster Rovers - AFC Wimbledon	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WLLTL
- Rochdale AFC
English League Two
25.03.23	Crawley Town - Rochdale	2:0 ✺
18.03.23	Rochdale - Swindon Town	4:4 ✺
11.03.23	Grimsby Town - Rochdale	1:0 ✺
04.03.23	Rochdale - Stevenage Borough	2:0 ✺
25.02.23	Crewe Alexandra - Rochdale	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 LTLWT

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
22.10.22	Rochdale - AFC Wimbledon	1:2
English League One
27.04.21	AFC Wimbledon - Rochdale	3:3
21.11.20	Rochdale - AFC Wimbledon	0:1
05.10.19	AFC Wimbledon - Rochdale	3:2
19.02.19	Rochdale - AFC Wimbledon	3:4
08.12.18	AFC Wimbledon - Rochdale	1:1
17.03.18	Rochdale - AFC Wimbledon	1:1

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