Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE TWO - ROUND 38

Date: 25 March 2023, Saturday

Location: The People’s Pension Stadium (Crawley)

Referee: Purkiss S. (Eng)


	Crawley Town		Rochdale

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.3	3.2
	2.25	3.3	3
	2.15	3.25	3.3
	2.32	3.45	3.21
	2.2	3.3	3.25
	2.22	3.46	3.14	Watch
	2.22	3.25	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↓ (2.46)	3.33 ↑ (3.23)	3.16 ↑ (2.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Crawley Town
42.1%

Draw
28.2%

Rochdale
29.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.3%

29.1%

32.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.3%

29.1%

32.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Crawley Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Rochdale has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crawley Town than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rochdale than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	16.7%	16.7%

Crawley Town - Rochdale Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Crawley will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Rochdale will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Crawley has the most likely position - 22 (33.5%), project points - 45, currently - 33, a chance of relegated (21%), a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), a very small chance of promoted (<1%), not chance of win league.

Rochdale has the most likely position - 24 (69.41%), project points - 36, currently - 26, a good chance of relegated (92%), not chance of prom. playoffs.

This event has very small quality 7, importance 41, small match rating 24. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Crawley could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Crawley will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Crawley won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Crawley won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Crawley Town
English League Two
21.03.23	Crawley Town - Doncaster Rovers	1:1 ✺
18.03.23	AFC Wimbledon - Crawley Town	0:1 ✺
11.03.23	Crawley Town - Harrogate Town	3:1 ✺
07.03.23	Sutton United - Crawley Town	3:0 ✺
04.03.23	Northampton Town - Crawley Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 TWWLL
- Rochdale AFC
English League Two
18.03.23	Rochdale - Swindon Town	4:4 ✺
11.03.23	Grimsby Town - Rochdale	1:0 ✺
04.03.23	Rochdale - Stevenage Borough	2:0 ✺
25.02.23	Crewe Alexandra - Rochdale	1:1 ✺
21.02.23	Rochdale - Stockport County	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 TLWTL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
27.08.22	Rochdale - Crawley Town	1:1
26.03.22	Crawley Town - Rochdale	1:0
09.10.21	Rochdale - Crawley Town	0:1
English League One
17.01.15	Rochdale - Crawley Town	4:1
06.09.14	Crawley Town - Rochdale	0:4

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