Match Info

USL Cup

Date: 11 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Lancaster Municipal Stadium (Lancaster, CA)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	fubo Sports Network
Usa	KDKA+, SportsEngine Play


	AV Alta		Phoenix Rising

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.45	3.40	2.37
	2.48	3.35	2.43
	2.55	3.58	2.47
	2.64	3.51	2.40	Watch
	2.50	3.45	2.35
	2.51	3.56	2.57	Watch
	2.46	3.40	2.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↑ (2.17)	3.46 ↓ (3.5)	2.44 ↓ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AV Alta
36.3%

Draw
26.3%

Phoenix Rising
37.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41%

25.4%

33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

23.5%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AV Alta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Phoenix Rising has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AV Alta than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for AV Alta, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Phoenix Rising than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Phoenix Rising, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

AV Alta - Phoenix Rising Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Gonzalez M. (C) 2. Ortiz C. 15. Winum M. 44. Pehlivanov K. 3. Ortiz A. 6. Lay O. 21. Villalobos J. 11. Aoumaich I. 23. Thomas R. 18. Aoumaich A. 99. Bahena Jr C.	14. Odunze C. (C) 44. Ping J. 4. Mar Boye P. 24. Pelayo A. 17. JP Scearce 20. Biasi L. 13. Moursou J. 37. Rivera G. 8. Gomez D. 28. Arase K. 23. Badji D.
Substitutes
9. Acuna J. 5. Alassane M. 19. Anderson C. 20. Antwi G. 24. Higareda S. 4. Pajaro M. 52. Ramos S. 12. Relerford N. 22. Smith D. (G)	10. Avayevu H. 80. Balanzar A. 47. Cross N. 33. Gaydon J. 68. Irwin J. 1. Rakovsky P. (G) 91. Ramirez E. 11. Studenhofft G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Aoumaich A. (Penalty Awarded),
24', Moursou J. 🟨,
32', 2 - 0, Bahena Jr C. ⚽, Thomas R. (A),
39', Pehlivanov K. 🟨,
45', Bahena Jr C. 🟨,
45', Pelayo A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Pelayo A. ↓, Ramirez E. ↑,
46', Thomas R. ↓, Higareda S. ↑,
60', Lay O. ↓, Ramos S. ↑,
60', Aoumaich I. ↓, Antwi G. ↑,
60', Arase K. ↓, Avayevu H. ↑,
60', Badji D. ↓, Studenhofft G. ↑,
64', Aoumaich A. ↓, Alassane M. ↑,
65', Rivera G. 🟨,
67', Rivera G. ↓, Irwin J. ↑,
71', 2 - 1, Studenhofft G. ⚽, Irwin J. (A),
72', Ping J. 🟨,
75', Bahena Jr C. ↓, Acuna J. ↑,
77', Biasi L. ↓, Cross N. ↑,
89', Higareda S. 🟨,
90+4', Ramirez E. 🟨,

Preview

Recent performances by Alta have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Phoenix Rising has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Alta may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Phoenix Rising - the odds 2.65 are the expected chance of winning is 33.58%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AV Alta FC
USL League One
05.07.26	AV Alta - Charlotte Independence	1:1 ✺
01.07.26	Union Omaha - AV Alta	3:1 ✺
24.06.26	Corpus Christi - AV Alta	0:0 ✺
20.06.26	Greenville Triumph - AV Alta	1:2 ✺
13.06.26	AV Alta - Spokane Velocity	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 TLTWW
- Phoenix Rising
USL Championship
04.07.26	Colorado Springs Switchbacks - Phoenix Rising	3:1 ✺
20.06.26	Phoenix Rising - Oakland Roots	3:4 ✺
13.06.26	El Paso Locomotive - Phoenix Rising	1:1 ✺
10.06.26	Phoenix Rising - Louisville City	0:2 ✺
USL Cup
06.06.26	New Mexico United - Phoenix Rising	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLTLL

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