The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
AZ Alkmaar 70.9%
Draw 17.3%
Excelsior 11.8%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
69.8%
18.6%
11.6%
Our Initial ML Estimation
62.3%
16.6%
13%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
AZ Alkmaar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)
Excelsior has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (-8.6%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with AZ Alkmaar that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Excelsior than the current prediction. (+1.2%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
58.3%
25%
16.7%
AZ Alkmaar - Excelsior Predictions
Users Predictions:
12 users predict this event. AZ will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Excelsior will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%). Confidence interval (95%) for AZ: 30.4% โ 86.2%.
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
AH -2 - AZ (2.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .
O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): AZ Alkmaar will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) ๐ฅ Bronze Tip.
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. AZ (votes: 5 - 83.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
41. Zoet J. (G) 22. Dijkstra E. 3. Goes W. 5. Penetra 34. de Wit M. 20. Boogaard K. 6. Koopmeiners P. (C) 7. Weslley Patati 26. Smit K. 17. Jensen I. 9. Parrott T.
1. van Gassel S. (G) 2. Bronkhorst I. 4. Widell C. (C) 3. Meissen R. 12. Zagre A. 30. Sanches Fernandes D. 23. Yegoian I. 14. Schouten L. 7. Hansson E. 33. Bergraaf J. 10. Naujoks N.
Substitutes
15. Chavez Garcia M. 27. Daal R. 31. Deen D. (G) 4. Dekker M. 19. Hornkamp J. 2. Maikuma S. 24. Oufkir A. 56. Robbemond R. 11. Sadiq I. 33. Sin M. 23. van Duijl B. 12. Verhulst H. (G)
6. Carlen A. 11. de Regt G. 20. Hartjes L. 5. Henderikx S. 15. Janssen S. 26. Jonathans M. 17. Martens N. 25. Middendorp S. 18. Nadje C. 16. Raatsie C. (G) 29. van Duinen M.
Coaches
Echteld L.
den Uil R.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Weslley Patati ↓, Sadiq I. ↑,
63', Jensen I. ↓, Daal R. ↑,
64', Hansson E. ↓, de Regt G. ↑,
65', 1 - 0, Parrott T. ⚽,
68', de Regt G. 🟨,
76', Boogaard K. ↓, Chavez Garcia M. ↑,
78', Dijkstra E. 🟨,
78', Bronkhorst I. ↓, Martens N. ↑,
78', Bergraaf J. ↓, van Duinen M. ↑,
78', Sanches Fernandes D. ↓, Jonathans M. ↑,
81', 1 - 1, Jonathans M. ⚽, van Duinen M. (A),
84', de Wit M. ↓, Hornkamp J. ↑,
84', Dijkstra E. ↓, Maikuma S. ↑,
84', Schouten L. ↓, Carlen A. ↑,
86', Chavez Garcia M. 🟨,
90+3', Koopmeiners P. 🟨,
Preview
One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: ) and 14).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, AZ won 4.
AZ is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Excelsior has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins โ 2).
Excelsior may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, AZ is the obvious favorite.
There will not play in AZ: Clasie J.
(Ankle Injury)
Kasius D.
(Injury)
Meerdink M.
(Groin Injury)
There will not play in Excelsior: Middendorp S.
(Red Card)
Nadje C.
(Inactive)
Tielemans M.
(Inactive)
In the last 18 head-to-head matches, AZ won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 48:25. (average 2.7:1.4).
Including home matches between the teams, AZ won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 29:10. (average 2.9:1).
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Zoet J. (G) 
Penetra 
Weslley Patati 
Jensen I. 
Parrott T. 
Widell C. (C) 
Zagre A. 
Yegoian I. 
Chavez Garcia M. 
Maikuma S. 
Sadiq I. 
Sin M. 
Jonathans M. 
Martens N. 
Nadje C. 
