Match Info

Conference League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 12 March 2026, Thursday

Location: AFAS Stadion (Alkmaar)

Referee: Gishamer S. (Aut)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 6
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5
China	ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 5, Oneplay
Denmark	Disney+
France	Canal+ Live 7
Germany	RTL+
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Ireland	Premier Sports 2 ROI
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Portugal	DAZN 4, DAZN / App
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 8
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Nova Sport 5
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 7
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 8, Blue Sport 8
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 8
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 6
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	VIX App


	AZ Alkmaar		Sparta Prague

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.75	4.5
	2.05	3.4	3.1
	1.75	3.7	4.25
	1.8	3.8	4.59
	1.78	3.85	4.42	Watch
	1.75	3.5	4.4
	1.72	3.8	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (2.15)	3.69 ↑ (3.43)	4.29 ↑ (3.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AZ Alkmaar
52.5%

Draw
25.6%

Sparta Prague
22%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.2%

27.7%

28%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.5%

29.2%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AZ Alkmaar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in AZ Alkmaar's performance.

Sparta Prague has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sparta Prague might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with AZ Alkmaar that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sparta Prague than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	10.9%	9.1%

AZ Alkmaar - Sparta Prague Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

TQ, OT - AZ (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - AZ (1.21) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH -0.5 - AZ (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: AZ Alkmaar will win (44 of 54 users predict this - 81.48%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.12% – 91.84%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): AZ Alkmaar will win (16 of 19 users predict this - 84.21%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 24 Selected Experts predict this event. AZ (votes: 20 - 83.3%). Sparta Prague (votes: 3 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Owusu-Oduro R. (G) 30. Kasius D. 3. Goes W. 5. Penetra 34. de Wit M. 6. Koopmeiners P. 10. Mijnans S. (C) 26. Smit K. 17. Jensen I. 9. Parrott T. 27. Daal R.	44. Surovcik J. (G) 19. Sevinsky A. 27. Panak F. 30. Zeleny J. 17. Sonne O. 18. Irving A. 6. Kairinen K. 11. Rynes M. 36. Kuol G. 29. Vojta M. 22. Haraslin L. (C)
Substitutes
74. Boogaard K. 31. Deen D. (G) 22. Dijkstra E. 19. Hornkamp J. 18. Ichihara R. 35. Meerdink M. 24. Oufkir A. 11. Sadiq I. 33. Sin M. 23. van Duijl B. 12. Verhulst H. (G) 7. Weslley Patati	3. Kaderabek P. 61. Kerl Dan. (G) 10. Kuchta J. 20. Mannsverk S. 7. Mercado J. 60. Rodriguez P. (G) 38. Sochurek H. 16. Uchenna E.
Coaches
Echteld L.	Priske B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
29', 1 - 0, Parrott T. ⚽, Daal R. (A),
32', Rynes M. ↓, Uchenna E. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Kuol G. ↓, Mercado J. ↑,
46', Panak F. ↓, Mannsverk S. ↑,
48', Kairinen K. 🟨,
49', Kasius D. 🟨,
50', 1 - 1, Vojta M. ⚽, Irving A. (A),
59', Kasius D. ↓, Dijkstra E. ↑,
69', Jensen I. ↓, Weslley Patati ↑,
76', Vojta M. ↓, Kuchta J. ↑,
76', Haraslin L. ↓, Kaderabek P. ↑,
79', Zeleny J. 🟨,
87', 2 - 1, Parrott T. ⚽, Daal R. (A),
90+5', Kaderabek P. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

AZ may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

AZ is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eredivisie
07.03.26	PSV Eindhoven - AZ Alkmaar	2:1 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
04.03.26	AZ Alkmaar - Telstar	2:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
01.03.26	Utrecht - AZ Alkmaar	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
26.02.26	AZ Alkmaar - Noah Yerevan	4:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
22.02.26	AZ Alkmaar - Sparta Rotterdam	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LWLWW
- AC Sparta Prague
Czech 1 Liga
08.03.26	Slavia Prague - Sparta Prague	3:1 ✺
Czech Cup
03.03.26	Mladá Boleslav - Sparta Prague	1:0 penalties ✺
Czech 1 Liga
28.02.26	Sparta Prague - Baník Ostrava	5:2 ✺
22.02.26	Viktoria Plzeň - Sparta Prague	0:0 ✺
15.02.26	Sparta Prague - Hradec Králové	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LLWTW

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