Match Info

ENGLAND: EFL TROPHY - PLAY OFFS - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 12 December 2023, Tuesday


	Accrington Stanley		Lincoln City

	1	X	2
	2.87	3.3	2.1
	3	3.4	2.2	Watch
	3.1	3.45	2.25
	3.1	3.42	2.26
	2.75	3.4	2.2
	3	3.44	2.19
	2.9	3.35	2.24
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.96 ↑ (2.46)	3.39 ↓ (3.5)	2.21 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Accrington Stanley
31.1%

Draw
27.1%

Lincoln City
41.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.2%

26.2%

36.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

25.8%

36%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Accrington Stanley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Accrington Stanley's form might have worsened.

Lincoln City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lincoln City's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Accrington Stanley than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Accrington Stanley, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lincoln City than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lincoln City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	0%	87.5%

Accrington Stanley - Lincoln City Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Accrington will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Lincoln will win (votes: 7 - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lincoln: 64.6% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
61. McIntyre J. (G) 4. Mellor K. 5. Hills B. 16. Gubbins J. 2. Shipley L. 7. Whalley S. 8. Woods B. 18. Leigh T. 22. Martin D. 14. Longelo-Mbule R. 19. Andrews J.	1. Jensen L. (G) 15. O'Connor P. 5. Jackson A. 22. Eyoma T. 2. Sorensen L. 11. Hamilton E. 6. Erhahon E. 16. Burroughs J. 14. Mandroiu D. 29. Vale J. 17. Duffy D.
Substitutes
55. Adedoyin K. 30. Henderson A. 17. Nolan J. 38. O'Brien C. 25. Pickles A. 41. Riva O. (G) 27. Trickett L.	10. Bishop T. 27. Makama J. 25. Mitchell A. 23. Roughan S. 30. Shodipo O. 8. Smith A. 12. Wright J. (G)
Coaches
Coleman J.	Skubala M.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Accrington won 3.

Accrington is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Lincoln is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recently Accrington have a series of home games.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Accrington won 6 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 19-25.

Including matches at home between the teams Accrington won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Accrington Stanley
English League Two
09.12.23	Accrington Stanley - Doncaster Rovers	0:0 ✺
28.11.23	Accrington Stanley - Swindon Town	3:4 ✺
25.11.23	Bradford City - Accrington Stanley	1:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
21.11.23	Accrington Stanley - Nottingham Forest U21	1:2 ✺
English League Two
18.11.23	Accrington Stanley - Wrexham	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TLLLW
- Lincoln City
English League One
09.12.23	Wigan Athletic - Lincoln City	0:0 ✺
28.11.23	Cambridge United - Lincoln City	0:3 ✺
25.11.23	Lincoln City - Barnsley	2:2 ✺
21.11.23	Leyton Orient - Lincoln City	1:0 ✺
18.11.23	Stevenage Borough - Lincoln City	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TWTLL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
04.02.23	Accrington Stanley - Lincoln City	0:3
English EFL Trophy
10.01.23	Lincoln City - Accrington Stanley	2:3 pen.
English League One
01.11.22	Lincoln City - Accrington Stanley	1:1
23.04.22	Accrington Stanley - Lincoln City	2:1
27.11.21	Lincoln City - Accrington Stanley	0:1
14.02.21	Lincoln City - Accrington Stanley	2:2
English EFL Trophy
12.01.21	Lincoln City - Accrington Stanley	4:0

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