Match Info

FRANCE: Ligue 2 - Round 27

Date: 14 March 2025, Friday

Location: Michel Moretti Stadium (Ajaccio)

Referee: Gaillouste P. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free


	Ajaccio		Red Star

	1	X	2
	2.55	2.8	2.9	Watch
	2.45	2.95	3
	2.6	2.8	3
	2.63	2.87	3.23
	2.56	2.85	3.08	Watch
	2.62	2.8	3
	2.69	2.96	3.06	Watch
	2.6	2.8	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 ↑ (2.25)	2.85 ↓ (2.98)	3.03 ↓ (3.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ajaccio
36.2%

Draw
32.9%

Red Star
30.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.8%

31.6%

26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

33.3%

25.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ajaccio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ajaccio's form might have worsened.

Red Star has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajaccio than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ajaccio, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Red Star than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Red Star, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.4%	15.8%	15.8%

Ajaccio - Red Star Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Ajaccio will win (votes: 12 - 66.7%). Red Star will win (votes: 3 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ajaccio: 44.9% – 88.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Sollacaro F. (G) 20. Youssouf M. 88. Bamba A. 5. Vidal C. 12. Huard M. 43. Kouassi A. 25. Anziani J. 17. Junior Pereira da Silva E. 4. Barreto M. (C) 27. Kante A. 9. Santelli B.	40. Risser R. (G) 20. Durivaux D. 24. Lemonnier P. 28. Kouagba L. 13. Doucoure F. 97. Renel S. 19. Mbock H. 98. Hachem R. 9. Fall A. 10. Ifnaoui M. 11. Cisse K.
Substitutes
31. Ayessa J. 21. Chegra I. 6. Mangani T. 8. Puch Herrantz M. 30. Quilichini G. (G) 22. Soumano M. 11. Toure B.	29. Benali H. 1. Beunardeau Q. (G) 26. Dembi F. J. 7. Durand D. 8. Eickmayer J. 5. Escartin J. 2. Meyapya B.
Coaches
Debes T.	Poirier G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', 0 - 1, Lemonnier P. ⚽, Renel S. (A),
32', Mbock H. 🟨,
38', Barreto M. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
51', Doucoure F. ↓, Escartin J. ↑,
57', 1 - 1, Anziani J. ⚽, Barreto M. (A),
64', Renel S. ↓, Durand D. ↑,
64', Cisse K. ↓, Benali H. ↑,
65', Fall A. ↓, Dembi F. J. ↑,
69', Kante A. ↓, Soumano M. ↑,
79', Santelli B. ↓, Toure B. ↑,
79', Barreto M. ↓, Puch Herrantz M. ↑,
81', 2 - 1, Anziani J. ⚽,
86', Mbock H. ↓, Eickmayer J. ↑,
86', Anziani J. ↓, Mangani T. ↑,
90+5', Lemonnier P. 🟨,

Preview

This time we will watch a game between teams from the middle of a tournament table (ranked 13 and 12).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ajaccio won 0.

Recent matches Ajaccio is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Red Star is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

There will not play in Ajaccio: Barreto M. (Injury) Huard M. (Inactive) Jacob V. (Leg Injury) Toure B. (Inactive) Touzghar Y. (Arm Injury)

There will not play in Red Star: Badji A. (Yellow Cards) Danger B. (Injury) Eickmayer J. (Injury) Mendy B. (Injury) Meyapya B. (Injury) Slimani R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Red Star: Kouagba L. (Injury)

Last 7 head-to-head matches Ajaccio won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 3:10 (average 0.4:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Ajaccio won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2:4 (average 0.7:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Ajaccio
French Ligue 2
07.03.25	Grenoble - Ajaccio	2:2 ✺
03.03.25	Ajaccio - Dunkerque	1:2 ✺
22.02.25	Metz - Ajaccio	0:1 ✺
14.02.25	Ajaccio - Laval	3:0 ✺
08.02.25	Ajaccio - Guingamp	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.2 TLWWL
- Red Star FC 93
French Ligue 2
07.03.25	Red Star - Amiens	2:0 ✺
01.03.25	Red Star - Guingamp	3:1 ✺
21.02.25	Bastia - Red Star	1:0 ✺
14.02.25	Red Star - Martigues	1:0 ✺
07.02.25	Grenoble - Red Star	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
26.08.24	Red Star - Ajaccio	1:0
08.03.19	Ajaccio - Red Star	0:0
05.10.18	Red Star - Ajaccio	2:0
06.02.17	Red Star - Ajaccio	2:0
09.09.16	Ajaccio - Red Star	1:2
08.04.16	Ajaccio - Red Star	1:2
24.11.15	Red Star - Ajaccio	1:1

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