Match Info

FRANCE: Ligue 2 - Round 25

Date: 3 March 2025, Monday

Location: Michel Moretti Stadium (Ajaccio)

Referee: Valnet A. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Andorra	beIN Sports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 2
Denmark	Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, Free
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Serbia	Arena Sport 7
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
Spain	beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Usa	Fanatiz, Tubi TV


	Ajaccio		Dunkerque

	1	X	2
	3	2.88	2	Watch
	3.85	2.75	2.07
	4.45	3.01	2.1
	4.28	2.93	2.04	Watch
	3.9	2.9	2.1
	4.33	2.96	2.07	Watch
	3.85	2.75	2.07
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.95 ↑ (3.39)	2.88 ↑ (2.87)	2.06 ↓ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

Watch this match and French Ligue 2 with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN SPORTS Xtra En Español

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Current Win Probability

Ajaccio
23.3%

Draw
32%

Dunkerque
44.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.3%

32.2%

40.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.3%

32.2%

40.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ajaccio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Dunkerque has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajaccio than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dunkerque than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.5%	35.3%	41.2%

Ajaccio - Dunkerque Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Ajaccio will win (votes: 4 - 25%). Dunkerque will win (votes: 7 - 43.8%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 31.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Dunkerque: 19.5% – 68.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Sollacaro F. (G) 20. Youssouf M. 88. Bamba A. 5. Vidal C. 12. Huard M. 43. Kouassi A. 25. Anziani J. 17. Junior Pereira da Silva E. 4. Barreto M. 27. Kante A. 22. Soumano M.	16. Ortola A. (G) 2. Georgen A. 26. Sangante O. 23. Sasso V. 30. Abner F. 28. Raghouber U. 77. Al Saad M. 22. Skytta N. 20. Bardeli E. 80. Yassine G. 18. Courtet G.
Substitutes
31. Ayessa J. 21. Chegra I. 6. Mangani T. 8. Puch Herrantz M. 30. Quilichini G. (G) 9. Santelli B. 23. Strata T.	19. Bammou Y. 10. Essimi M. 4. Fernandez N. 1. Jaouen E. (G) 21. Kondo G. 11. Pitu A. 9. Tejan K.
Coaches
Debes T.	Castro L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
16', 0 - 1, Courtet G. ⚽,
24', Junior Pereira da Silva E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Huard M. ↓, Santelli B. ↑,
46', 1 - 1, Kante A. ⚽, Soumano M. (A),
58', Barreto M. ↓, Strata T. ↑,
59', Al Saad M. ↓, Tejan K. ↑,
62', 1 - 2, Skytta N. ⚽, Abner F. (A),
67', Anziani J. ↓, Puch Herrantz M. ↑,
74', Yassine G. ↓, Bammou Y. ↑,
76', Puch Herrantz M. 🟨,
77', Kouassi A. 🟨,
82', Kouassi A. 🟨,
87', Kante A. ↓, Chegra I. ↑,
90+2', Bardeli E. ↓, Pitu A. ↑,

Preview

Watch a game between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a team which is a leader now (ranked 12 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ajaccio won 2.

Ajaccio is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Dunkerque in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Dunkerque could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Dunkerque will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Ajaccio: Campanini T. (Injury) Chegra I. (Inactive) Jacob V. (Leg Injury) Quemper S. (Injury) Silva R. (Injury) Sollacaro F. (Injury) Touzghar Y. (Arm Injury)

There will not play in Dunkerque: Essimi M. (Injury) Fernandez N. (Injury) Fortuna N. (Injury) Linguet A. (Injury) Sekongo A. (Injury)

Last 7 head-to-head matches Ajaccio won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 7:9 (average 1:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Ajaccio won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5:3 (average 1.7:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Ajaccio
French Ligue 2
22.02.25	Metz - Ajaccio	0:1 ✺
14.02.25	Ajaccio - Laval	3:0 ✺
08.02.25	Ajaccio - Guingamp	0:3 ✺
31.01.25	Clermont - Ajaccio	0:1 ✺
24.01.25	Rodez - Ajaccio	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 34.7 WWLWW
- USL Dunkerque
Coupe De France
26.02.25	Brest - Dunkerque	2:3 ✺
French Ligue 2
21.02.25	Dunkerque - Clermont	3:0 ✺
15.02.25	Dunkerque - Paris FC	1:0 ✺
10.02.25	Caen - Dunkerque	0:2 ✺
Coupe De France
04.02.25	Lille - Dunkerque	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 33.4 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
25.11.24	Dunkerque - Ajaccio	1:0
23.01.24	Dunkerque - Ajaccio	2:0
02.09.23	Ajaccio - Dunkerque	2:2
19.04.22	Ajaccio - Dunkerque	2:1
20.11.21	Dunkerque - Ajaccio	0:1
23.01.21	Dunkerque - Ajaccio	3:1
30.09.20	Ajaccio - Dunkerque	1:0

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