Match Info

EUROPE: Europa League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 26 September 2024, Thursday

Location: Johan Cruijff Arena (Amsterdam)

Referee: Brooks J. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 4, New World Sport App, SuperSport Football Plus ROA
Albania	SuperSport 3
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 3
Azerbaijan	Ictimai TV
Belgium	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 3, Play Sports 4
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1, Moja TV
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Canada	DAZN Canada
China	QQ Sports
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Elisa Viihde Sport, Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 4
Germany	RTL+
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 5
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, Now Player
Iceland	Stod 2 Sport 2
India	Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 3
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Italy	Sky Sport 254, TV8
Kazakhstan	Qazsport, Q Sport Arena
Kosovo	ART Motion Sport 1
Laos	beIN Connect
Malta	TSN Malta 1
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, FOX Sports Premium
Montenegro	Arena Sport 3
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
North-central-america	SportsMax Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	DAZN 2
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4
Russia	Okko Sport
Slovenia	SportKlub 4
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport 4
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Turkey	TRT 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 2, TNT Sports 5
Usa	Paramount+
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	Disney+, JioTV app, Prima+ app


	Ajax		Beşiktaş

	1	X	2
	2	3.75	3.5
	1.95	3.7	3.6
	2.05	3.75	3.5
	2	3.77	3.69
	2.03	3.72	3.48	Watch
	2	3.6	3.7
	2.05	3.79	3.79
	2.05	3.75	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↑ (1.94)	3.73 ↑ (3.69)	3.6 ↓ (3.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ajax
47.6%

Draw
25.7%

Beşiktaş
26.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.3%

25.9%

24.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.3%

26.4%

24.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Beşiktaş has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Beşiktaş than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.9%	13.7%	31.4%

Ajax - Beşiktaş Predictions

Users Predictions: 51 users predict this event. Ajax will win (votes: 28 - 54.9%). Beşiktaş will win (votes: 16 - 31.4%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 13.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ajax: 41.2% – 68.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Pasveer R. (G) 2. Rensch D. 37. Sutalo J. 15. Baas Y. 4. Hato J. 28. Fitz-Jim K. 6. Henderson J. (C) 8. Taylor K. 20. Traore B. 9. Brobbey B. 11. Godts M.	34. Gunok M. (C) 2. Svensson J. 3. Gabriel Paulista 14. Uduokhai F. 26. Masuaku A. 71. Onana J. 6. Al Musrati 7. Rashica M. 83. Fernandes G. 27. Rafa Silva 91. Hekimoglu M.
Substitutes
10. Akpom Ch. 49. Banel J. 12. Gorter J. (G) 38. Hlynsson K. 13. Kaplan A. 40. Ramaj D. (G) 29. Rasmussen C. 24. Rugani D. 33. Tahirovic B. 21. van den Boomen B. 25. Weghorst W. 5. Wijndal O.	4. Bulut O. 30. Destanoglu E. (G) 17. Immobile C. 18. Joao Mario 77. Keles C. 9. Kilicsoy S. 23. Muci E. 73. Ndour C. 5. Sanuc T. 53. Topcu E. 8. Ucan S. 22. Zaynutdinov B.
Coaches
Farioli F.	van Bronckhorst G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
21', Fitz-Jim K. 🟨,
31', 1 - 0, Fitz-Jim K. ⚽,
45+1', Hekimoglu M. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Hekimoglu M. ↓, Immobile C. ↑,
47', Hato J. 🟨,
51', 2 - 0, Godts M. ⚽, Traore B. (A),
51', Onana J. 🟨,
55', 3 - 0, Taylor K. ⚽, Brobbey B. (A),
64', Onana J. ↓, Ndour C. ↑,
64', Rafa Silva ↓, Kilicsoy S. ↑,
66', Taylor K. ↓, van den Boomen B. ↑,
66', Fitz-Jim K. ↓, Hlynsson K. ↑,
70', Brobbey B. ↓, Weghorst W. ↑,
70', Traore B. ↓, Rasmussen C. ↑,
73', 4 - 0, Godts M. ⚽,
81', Godts M. ↓, Akpom Ch. ↑,
81', Al Musrati ↓, Ucan S. ↑,
84', Rashica M. ↓, Keles C. ↑,

Preview

Now both teams are in good shape.

Ajax will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in Ajax: Mannsverk S. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Beşiktaş: Uysal N. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Ajax: Avila G. (Knee Injury) Baas Y. (Injury) Berghuis S. (Injury) van Axel Dongen A. (Knock)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Ajax won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-1.

Including matches at home between the teams Ajax won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
21.09.24	Go Ahead Eagles - Ajax	1:1 ✺
18.09.24	Ajax - Fortuna Sittard	5:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
29.08.24	Ajax - Jagiellonia Białystok	3:0 ✺
22.08.24	Jagiellonia Białystok - Ajax	1:4 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
18.08.24	NAC Breda - Ajax	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TWWWL
- Beşiktaş
Turkish Super League
22.09.24	Beşiktaş - Eyüpspor	2:1 ✺
15.09.24	Trabzonspor - Beşiktaş	1:1 ✺
01.09.24	Beşiktaş - Sivasspor	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
29.08.24	Beşiktaş - Lugano	5:1 ✺
22.08.24	Lugano - Beşiktaş	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WTWWT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
24.11.21	Beşiktaş - Ajax	1:2
28.09.21	Ajax - Beşiktaş	2:0

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