Match Info

EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification - Final

Date: 22 August 2024, Thursday

Location: Stadion Miejski (Bialystok)

Referee: Obrenovic R. (Slo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
Poland	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	Canal 11
Slovakia	Arena sport 2


	Jagiellonia Białystok		Ajax

	1	X	2
	4.33	4	1.7	Watch
	4.5	3.9	1.72
	4.33	3.75	1.78	Watch
	4.75	3.91	1.73
	4.21	3.95	1.74	Watch
	4	3.9	1.65
	4.73	4.22	1.7	Watch
	4.33	3.75	1.78
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.4 ↑ (4.15)	3.92 ↑ (3.77)	1.73 ↓ (1.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jagiellonia Białystok
21.4%

Draw
24%

Ajax
54.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.8%

25.1%

52.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.2%

24.4%

53.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jagiellonia Białystok has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Ajax has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.1%	9.1%	82.8%

Jagiellonia Białystok - Ajax Predictions

Users Predictions: Ajax will win (82 of 98 users predict this - 83.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.35% – 90.99%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
50. Abramowicz S. (G) 16. Sacek M. 72. Skrzypczak M. 17. Dieguez A. 44. Moutinho J. 20. Villar Miki 14. Kubicki J. 8. Nene 21. Churlinov D. 11. Imaz J. (C) 9. Diaby-Fadiga L.	22. Pasveer R. (G) 2. Rensch D. 37. Sutalo J. 15. Baas Y. 4. Hato J. 23. Berghuis S. 6. Henderson J. (C) 8. Taylor K. 11. Forbs C. 10. Akpom Ch. 39. Godts M.
Substitutes
82. Costa Silva T. 4. Haliti J. 99. Hansen K. 29. Listkowski M. 39. Nguiamba A. 19. Olszewski P. 80. Pietuszewski O. 10. Pululu A. 6. Romanczuk T. 3. Stojinovic D. 1. Stryjek M. (G) 71. Stypulkowski S.	7. Bergwijn S. 9. Brobbey B. 3. Gaaei A. 12. Gorter J. (G) 36. Janse D. 16. Mannsverk S. 31. Mokio J. 40. Ramaj D. (G) 29. Rasmussen C. 26. Rugani D. 20. Traore B. 21. van den Boomen B.
Coaches
Siemieniec A.	Farioli F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
5', 1 - 0, Dieguez A. ⚽,
10', 1 - 1, Akpom Ch. ⚽, Berghuis S. (A),
28', 1 - 2, Godts M. ⚽, Rensch D. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Moutinho J. ↓, Nguiamba A. ↑,
48', Taylor K. 🟨,
54', Hato J. 🟨,
61', 1 - 3, Akpom Ch. ⚽,
62', Diaby-Fadiga L. ↓, Pululu A. ↑,
64', Taylor K. ↓, van den Boomen B. ↑,
64', Forbs C. ↓, Traore B. ↑,
68', Dieguez A. 🟨,
69', 1 - 4, Akpom Ch. (Pen),
70', Villar Miki ↓, Hansen K. ↑,
70', Dieguez A. ↓, Haliti J. ↑,
70', Nene ↓, Romanczuk T. ↑,
72', Akpom Ch. ↓, Brobbey B. ↑,
73', Hato J. ↓, Gaaei A. ↑,
79', Godts M. (Pen),
84', Godts M. ↓, Bergwijn S. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Ajax could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Jagiellonia have a series of home games.

In this match Ajax is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jagiellonia Białystok
Polish Ekstraklasa
17.08.24	Jagiellonia Białystok - Cracovia	2:4 ✺
UEFA Champions League
13.08.24	Bodø Glimt - Jagiellonia Białystok	4:1 ✺
07.08.24	Jagiellonia Białystok - Bodø Glimt	0:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
03.08.24	Jagiellonia Białystok - Stal Mielec	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
31.07.24	Jagiellonia Białystok - Panevėžys	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLLWW
- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
18.08.24	NAC Breda - Ajax	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
15.08.24	Ajax - Panathinaikos	1:1 penalties ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
11.08.24	Ajax - Heerenveen	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
08.08.24	Panathinaikos - Ajax	0:1 ✺
01.08.24	Vojvodina - Ajax	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LLWWW

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