Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 23

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Johan Cruijff Arena (Amsterdam)

Referee: Dieperink R. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Triller TV+


	Ajax		Fortuna Sittard

	1	X	2
	1.29	5.75	9.5	Watch
	1.28	5.85	9.7
	1.31	6	9.4
	1.31	5.75	8.76	Watch
	1.29	5	8.5
	1.32	5.66	10.4	Watch
	1.27	5.75	9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.3 ↓ (1.43)	5.68 ↑ (4.62)	9.32 ↑ (6.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ajax
73.1%

Draw
16.7%

Fortuna Sittard
10.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.1%

20.1%

14.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.6%

19.6%

14.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ajax has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ajax's performance.

Fortuna Sittard has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ajax that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortuna Sittard than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.4%	19.4%	3.2%

Ajax - Fortuna Sittard Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Ajax will win (votes: 24 - 77.4%). Fortuna Sittard will win (votes: 1 - 3.2%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 19.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ajax: 62.7% – 92.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Ajax will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jaros V. (G) 2. Rosa L. 37. Sutalo J. 15. Baas Y. 47. Zinchenko O. 18. Klaassen D. (C) 24. Mokio J. 48. Steur S. 43. Bounida R. 9. Dolberg K. 11. Godts M.	1. Koopmans L. (G) 12. Pinto I. (C) 44. Marquez I. 21. Kasanwirjo N. 28. Hubner J. 23. Brittijn P. 20. Michut E. 18. Limnios D. 52. Ihattaren M. 70. Duijvestijn L. 9. Sierhuis K.
Substitutes
23. Berghuis S. 30. Bouwman A. 17. Edvardsen O. 28. Fitz-Jim K. 3. Gaaei A. 10. Gloukh O. 12. Heerkens J. (G) 26. Paes M. (G) 32. Tomiyasu T. 25. Weghorst W. 5. Wijndal O.	4. Adewoye S. 8. Dahlhaus J. 46. Gbemou M. 19. Gladon P. 10. Halilovic A. 32. Marsman N. (G) 25. Martens N. (G) 5. Oukili Y. 7. Peterson K. 38. Schenkhuizen T. 6. van Ottele S.
Coaches
Grim F.	Buijs D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
6', Zinchenko O. ↓, Wijndal O. ↑,
7', 1 - 0, Mokio J. ⚽, Dolberg K. (A),
14', 2 - 0, Bounida R. ⚽, Godts M. (A),
24', 3 - 0, Godts M. ⚽, Mokio J. (A),
45', 3 - 1, Sutalo J. (Own goal),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Ihattaren M. ↓, Adewoye S. ↑,
64', Klaassen D. ↓, Fitz-Jim K. ↑,
65', Steur S. ↓, Gloukh O. ↑,
70', Marquez I. ↓, Peterson K. ↑,
80', Sierhuis K. ↓, Gladon P. ↑,
80', Brittijn P. ↓, Oukili Y. ↑,
80', Dolberg K. ↓, Weghorst W. ↑,
80', Mokio J. ↓, Bouwman A. ↑,
81', 4 - 1, Godts M. ⚽, Weghorst W. (A),
85', Duijvestijn L. ↓, Dahlhaus J. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: ) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ajax won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Ajax is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Fortuna Sittard: Bayram R. (Knee Injury) Branderhorst M. (Inactive) Dahlhaus J. (Inactive) Lonwijk J. (Inactive) Sinkgraven D. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Ajax: Berghuis S. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Fortuna Sittard: Tunjic L. (Inactive)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Ajax won 12 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 47:8. (average 3.1:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Ajax won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 30:4. (average 4.3:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Ajax	8	4	3	1	22:10	12	15
6	Sittard	8	4	2	2	14:15	-1	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
08.02.26	AZ Alkmaar - Ajax	1:1 ✺
01.02.26	Excelsior - Ajax	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.01.26	Ajax - Olympiacos Piraeus	1:2 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
24.01.26	Ajax - Volendam	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
20.01.26	Villarreal - Ajax	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 TTLWW
- Fortuna Sittard
Dutch Eredivisie
07.02.26	Fortuna Sittard - Sparta Rotterdam	2:2 ✺
01.02.26	Heracles Almelo - Fortuna Sittard	2:1 ✺
25.01.26	Groningen - Fortuna Sittard	1:2 ✺
17.01.26	Fortuna Sittard - PSV Eindhoven	1:2 ✺
11.01.26	Go Ahead Eagles - Fortuna Sittard	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 TLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
06.12.25	Fortuna Sittard - Ajax	1:3
09.02.25	Fortuna Sittard - Ajax	0:2
18.09.24	Ajax - Fortuna Sittard	5:0
10.03.24	Ajax - Fortuna Sittard	2:2
03.09.23	Fortuna Sittard - Ajax	0:0
09.04.23	Ajax - Fortuna Sittard	4:0
06.08.22	Fortuna Sittard - Ajax	2:3

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