Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 31

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Rat Verlegh Stadion (Breda)

Referee: Gozubuyuk S. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SupeSport ESPN 2
Albania	SuperSport 6
Argentina	Disney+
Belgium	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 7
Brazil	Disney+
Canada	Sportsnet+
Chile	Disney+
China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 9
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 1, Cablenet Sports 1
France	DAZN France
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
Greece	Nova Sports Start
India	Eurosport, JioTV app
Indonesia	Kompas TV, Vidio
Israel	Sport 1
Japan	U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv
Mexico	Disney+
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2
Nigeria	SupeSport ESPN 2
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Polsat Sport 3
Portugal	DAZN / App
Romania	Orange TV Go
Serbia	Arena Sport 5
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Slovenia	Sport TV3
South-africa	SupeSport ESPN 2
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3
United-arab-emirates	Dubai Sports 1
United-kingdom	Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Onefootball, Triller TV+


	NAC Breda		Ajax

	1	X	2
	3.4	4	1.95	Watch
	3.4	3.75	2
	3.55	3.7	1.98
	3.64	3.82	2.03
	3.48	3.84	1.98	Watch
	3.4	3.5	1.95
	3.6	3.75	2.01	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.5 ↓ (3.52)	3.77 ↓ (3.79)	1.99 ↑ (1.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

NAC Breda
27.1%

Draw
25.2%

Ajax
47.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.8%

24.9%

48.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.7%

24.8%

48.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

NAC Breda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for NAC Breda than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	7.7%	92.3%

NAC Breda - Ajax Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ajax (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Ajax will win (12 of 13 users predict this - 92.31%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.83% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Bielica D. (G) 3. Odoi D. 20. Jensen F. 8. Leemans C. 4. Kemper B. (C) 16. Balard M. 14. Sowah K. 7. Brym C. 10. Nassoh M. 11. Paula R. 9. Soumano M.	26. Paes M. (G) 3. Gaaei A. 37. Sutalo J. 15. Baas Y. 2. Rosa L. 10. Gloukh O. 6. Regeer Y. 24. Mokio J. 23. Berghuis S. (C) 25. Weghorst W. 11. Godts M.
Substitutes
24. Ayew A. 21. Candelaria J. 55. Ghalidi B. 22. Hillen R. 90. Holtby L. 1. Kortsmit R. (G) 31. Lamprou K. (G) 15. Mahmutovic E. 26. Reulen P. 19. Salama A. 32. Talvitie J. 25. Valerius C.	43. Bounida R. 30. Bouwman A. 7. Carrizo M. 9. Dolberg K. 17. Edvardsen O. 62. el Hani A. (G) 4. Itakura K. 19. Konadu D. 52. Reverson P. (G) 48. Steur S. 45. van de Pavert R. 5. Wijndal O.
Coaches
Hoefkens C.	Garcia O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
20', 0 - 1, Gloukh O. ⚽, Godts M. (A),
41', 0 - 2, Godts M. ⚽, Weghorst W. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Paula R. ↓, Reulen P. ↑,
56', Brym C. ↓, Ghalidi B. ↑,
56', Soumano M. ↓, Ayew A. ↑,
56', Gloukh O. ↓, Steur S. ↑,
71', Balard M. ↓, Holtby L. ↑,
72', Berghuis S. ↓, Itakura K. ↑,
72', Regeer Y. ↓, Bounida R. ↑,
78', Itakura K. 🟨,
82', Leemans C. ↓, Talvitie J. ↑,
82', Godts M. ↓, Edvardsen O. ↑,
85', Weghorst W. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Breda won 1.

Breda is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Ajax has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Ajax will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Ajax: Jaros V. (Knee Injury) Tomiyasu T. (Red Card) Zinchenko O. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Breda: Holtby L. (Health problems)

There are questionable in Ajax: Fitz-Jim K. (Inactive) Heerkens J. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Breda won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 7:43. (average 0.5:3.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Breda won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 4:21. (average 0.6:3).

Outrights of Dutch Eredivisie for now

NAC Breda: 15.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Ajax	8	4	3	1	22:10	12	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NAC Breda
Dutch Eredivisie
12.04.26	Fortuna Sittard - NAC Breda	1:1 ✺
05.04.26	NAC Breda - Sparta Rotterdam	0:0 ✺
21.03.26	Zwolle - NAC Breda	2:1 ✺
15.03.26	Go Ahead Eagles - NAC Breda	6:0 ✺
08.03.26	NAC Breda - Feyenoord	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 TTLLT
- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
11.04.26	Heracles Almelo - Ajax	0:3 ✺
04.04.26	Ajax - Twente	1:2 ✺
22.03.26	Feyenoord - Ajax	1:1 ✺
14.03.26	Ajax - Sparta Rotterdam	4:0 ✺
07.03.26	Groningen - Ajax	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
27.09.25	Ajax - NAC Breda	2:1
06.04.25	Ajax - NAC Breda	3:1
18.08.24	NAC Breda - Ajax	2:1
17.02.19	Ajax - NAC Breda	5:0
24.11.18	NAC Breda - Ajax	0:3
04.02.18	Ajax - NAC Breda	3:1
18.11.17	NAC Breda - Ajax	0:8

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