Match Info

Premier League - Round 10

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Akhmat-Arena (Groznyj)

Referee: Sukhoy A. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	Q Football Asia, Q Sport Asia
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Russia	Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru


	Akhmat Grozny		Baltika Kaliningrad

	1	X	2
	2.66	3.15	3.04
	2.6	3	2.95
	2.7	3.16	3.05
	2.46	3.1	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↑ (2.59)	3.1 ↓ (3.16)	2.94 ↑ (2.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Akhmat Grozny
36.7%

Draw
30.8%

Baltika Kaliningrad
32.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.8%

30.2%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.4%

30.7%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Akhmat Grozny has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Baltika Kaliningrad has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Akhmat Grozny than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

The ML Model estimate for Baltika Kaliningrad aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

Akhmat Grozny - Baltika Kaliningrad Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

A team fighting near the bottom hosts a mid-table side in a match full of urgency (ranked 13th in the Premier League (Relegation) and 10th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Akhmat won 0.

Akhmat has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Baltika has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Confirmed absences for Akhmat: Melkadze G. (Red Card).

Confirmed absences for Baltika: Filin A. (Knee Injury).

In the last 7 head-to-head meetings, Akhmat has recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 5:19 (averaging 0.7:2.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Akhmat against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 2:10 goals (averaging 0.7:3.3 per game).

Outrights of Russian Premier League for now

Baltika: 0.84% Akhmat Grozny: 0.84%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Baltika	9	3	2	4	14:12	2	11
13	Akhmat Grozny	9	2	4	3	13:13	0	10

Last Results with these Odds

Baltika Kaliningrad - the odds 2.89 are the expected chance of winning is 33%, but this team recently wins 55% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Akhmat Grozny
Russian Premier League
17.09.26	Akron Tolyatti - Akhmat Grozny	2:0 ✺
13.09.26	Akhmat Grozny - Dynamo Makhachkala	3:2 ✺
07.09.26	Rubin Kazan - Akhmat Grozny	1:1 ✺
Russian Cup
03.09.26	Dynamo Moscow - Akhmat Grozny	3:0 ✺
Russian Premier League
29.08.26	Akhmat Grozny - Krylya Sovetov	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LWTLT
- Baltika Kaliningrad
Russian Premier League
16.09.26	Baltika Kaliningrad - Zenit	2:3 ✺
12.09.26	Fakel - Baltika Kaliningrad	2:2 ✺
06.09.26	Baltika Kaliningrad - Lokomotiv Moscow	0:1 ✺
Russian Cup
02.09.26	Baltika Kaliningrad - Krylya Sovetov	0:1 penalties ✺
Russian Premier League
30.08.26	Rodina Moscow - Baltika Kaliningrad	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Russian Premier League
23.04.26	Akhmat Grozny - Baltika Kaliningrad	1:1
Club Friendly
18.02.26	Baltika Kaliningrad - Akhmat Grozny	2:2
Russian Premier League
02.11.25	Baltika Kaliningrad - Akhmat Grozny	2:0
13.04.24	Akhmat Grozny - Baltika Kaliningrad	1:7
Russian Cup
31.10.23	Baltika Kaliningrad - Akhmat Grozny	4:1
Russian Premier League
23.09.23	Baltika Kaliningrad - Akhmat Grozny	1:0
Russian Cup
10.08.23	Akhmat Grozny - Baltika Kaliningrad	0:2

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