Match Info

Russian Cup - Group Stage - Round 2

Date: 18 August 2026, Tuesday

Location: Arena Khimki (Khimki)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	Q League Asia
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Rodina Moscow		Orenburg

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.80	3.52
	2.02	3.65	3.45
	2.09	3.71	3.55	Watch
	1.80	3.70	3.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↓ (2.38)	3.72 ↑ (3.14)	3.48 ↑ (2.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rodina Moscow
47.4%

Draw
25.4%

Orenburg
27.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.2%

28.2%

34.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.6%

26.2%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rodina Moscow has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rodina Moscow's performance.

Orenburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Orenburg might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rodina Moscow than the current prediction. (-12.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rodina Moscow that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Orenburg than the current prediction. (+10.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Orenburg could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Rodina Moscow - Orenburg Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Volkov S. (G) 18. Abdusalamov M. 95. Cissoko K. 49. Dyatlov I. 5. Egorychev A. 72. Gordyushenko A. 55. Krizan M. 26. Meshchaninov A. (C) 74. Mushkarin D. 99. Timoshenko I. 23. Ushatov K.	95. Khodanovich A. (G) 19. Alexandre Jesus 21. Bosch B. 65. Ivashchenko I. 77. Kasadzhikov A. 38. Kasimov A. 78. Kul R. 11. Nazarenko E. 59. Syshchenko M. 18. Vasiljev D. 3. Vedernikov D. (C)
Substitutes
1. Aydarov S. (G) 17. Bakaev S. 22. Beskibalniy A. 80. Bessmertniy S. 77. Gharibyan A. 3. Goglichidze L. 27. Larionov K. 9. Maksimenko A. 38. Musaev L. 8. Pozo I. 71. Svinov I. (G) 19. Tananeev D.	7. Gonzalez J. 30. Guzina G. 53. Korobov V. (G) 63. Minatulaev O. 1. Ovsyannikov B. (G) 6. Palacios J. 2. Poroykov S. 8. Puebla D. 20. Rybchinskiy D. 24. Sivis M. 5. Tataev A. 26. Tsenov E.
Coaches
Diaz J.	Akhmetzyanov I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
2', 0 - 1, Alexandre Jesus ⚽, Kasadzhikov A. (A),
6', Egorychev A. 🟥,
31', Vasiljev D. 🟨,
33', 1 - 1, Timoshenko I. ⚽,
37', Volkov S. 🟨,
42', Timoshenko I. 🟨,
45+2', 1 - 2, Kasadzhikov A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Meshchaninov A. ↓, Tananeev D. ↑,
46', Kul R. ↓, Minatulaev O. ↑,
46', Nazarenko E. ↓, Puebla D. ↑,
57', Vasiljev D. ↓, Rybchinskiy D. ↑,
57', Bosch B. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
60', Timoshenko I. ↓, Gharibyan A. ↑,
60', Cissoko K. ↓, Musaev L. ↑,
60', Abdusalamov M. ↓, Maksimenko A. ↑,
62', Musaev L. 🟨,
64', Kasadzhikov A. ↓, Guzina G. ↑,
75', Gordyushenko A. ↓, Bakaev S. ↑,
76', 1 - 3, Puebla D. ⚽,
78', 1 - 4, Puebla D. ⚽,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Rodina may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Outrights of Russian Cup for now

Rodina Moscow: 0.84% Orenburg: 0.84%

Last Results with these Odds

Rodina Moscow - the odds 2.38 are the expected chance of winning is 37.21%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rodina Moscow
Russian Premier League
15.08.26	Rodina Moscow - Akron Tolyatti	3:3 ✺
09.08.26	Zenit - Rodina Moscow	1:2 ✺
Russian Cup
04.08.26	Rodina Moscow - Rubin Kazan	5:0 ✺
Russian Premier League
31.07.26	Rodina Moscow - Rostov	2:4 ✺
25.07.26	Spartak Moscow - Rodina Moscow	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 33.6 TWWLL
- FC Orenburg
Russian Premier League
14.08.26	Orenburg - Lokomotiv Moscow	1:1 ✺
09.08.26	Rubin Kazan - Orenburg	1:1 ✺
Russian Cup
05.08.26	Spartak Moscow - Orenburg	5:1 ✺
Russian Premier League
02.08.26	Orenburg - Zenit	0:3 ✺
26.07.26	Orenburg - Rostov	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 TTLLW

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