Match Info

Premier League - Round 11

Date: 19 October 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Arena Khimki (Khimki) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Tanashev I. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Asia	—	Q Sport Asia
Russia	19:30	Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru


	Rodina Moscow		Orenburg

	1	X	2
	2.99	3.53	2.43
	2.90	3.45	2.35
	3.12	3.53	2.43	Watch
	2.80	3.30	2.29
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.95 ↑ (2.56)	3.45 ↑ (3.25)	2.38 ↓ (2.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rodina Moscow
32.3%

Draw
27.6%

Orenburg
40.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

36.4%

28.6%

35%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

27.9%

35.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rodina Moscow has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Orenburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Orenburg's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rodina Moscow than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orenburg than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Rodina Moscow - Orenburg Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Volkov S. (C) 2. Igor Silva 50. Rodrigo Becao 75. Nade M. 20. Machado D. 5. Egorychev A. 38. Musaev L. 9. Maksimenko A. 10. Reyna Y. 17. Bakaev S. 7. Onugkha G.	1. Ovsyannikov B. (G) 24. Sivis M. 6. Palacios J. 5. Tataev A. (C) 26. Tsenov E. 78. Kul R. 57. Bolotov E. 10. Thompson J. 8. Puebla D. 20. Rybchinskiy D. 30. Guzina G.
Substitutes
18. Abdusalamov M. 1. Aydarov S. (G) 80. Bessmertniy S. 95. Cissoko K. 6. Fishchenko R. 77. Gharibyan A. 3. Goglichidze L. 72. Gordyushenko A. 26. Meshchaninov A. 19. Tananeev D. 99. Timoshenko I. 23. Ushatov K.	21. Bosch B. 35. Degtev A. (G) 27. Golybin R. 7. Gonzalez J. 77. Kasadzhikov A. 38. Kasimov A. 4. Khotulev D. 22. Lukashov A. 63. Minatulaev O. 11. Nazarenko E. 80. Pykhcheev M. 3. Vedernikov D.
Coaches
Alba J.	Akhmetzyanov I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', Rybchinskiy D. 🟨,
14', 1 - 0, Bakaev S. ⚽, Reyna Y. (A),
17', Bolotov E. 🟨,
25', 1 - 1, Thompson J. (Penalty Awarded),
26', Thompson J. 🟨,
26', Bakaev S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
50', Maksimenko A. 🟨,
52', Tsenov E. 🟨,
60', Bakaev S. ↓, Gharibyan A. ↑,
60', Maksimenko A. ↓, Abdusalamov M. ↑,
65', Puebla D. 🟨,
67', Rodrigo Becao 🟨,
68', Tataev A. 🟨,
69', Bolotov E. ↓, Kasadzhikov A. ↑,
69', Puebla D. ↓, Golybin R. ↑,
70', Rybchinskiy D. ↓, Nazarenko E. ↑,
71', Volkov S. 🟨,
73', 1 - 2, Thompson J. (Penalty Awarded),
75', Igor Silva 🟨,
75', Egorychev A. ↓, Timoshenko I. ↑,
77', Reyna Y. 🟨,
80', Kasadzhikov A. 🟨,
84', Musaev L. ↓, Ushatov K. ↑,
89', Thompson J. ↓, Lukashov A. ↑,
89', Nazarenko E. 🟨,
90', 2 - 2, Timoshenko I. ⚽,
90+4', Guzina G. ↓, Vedernikov D. ↑,

Preview

A team fighting near the bottom hosts a mid-table side in a match full of urgency (ranked 16th in the Relegation - FNL and 8th).

Rodina is on a difficult losing run (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Orenburg shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Rodina has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 1:4.

Specifically in home fixtures for Rodina against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 1:4 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Orenburg	12	3	7	2	14:12	2	16
15	Rodina Moscow	12	2	3	7	13:27	-14	9

Outrights of Russian Premier League for now

Rodina Moscow: 0.84% Orenburg: 0.84%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rodina Moscow
Russian Cup
15.10.26	Rodina Moscow - Spartak Moscow	2:4 ✺
Russian Premier League
11.10.26	CSKA Moscow - Rodina Moscow	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
04.10.26	Dynamo Moscow - Rodina Moscow	3:2 ✺
Russian Premier League
16.09.26	Rodina Moscow - Rubin Kazan	1:1 ✺
11.09.26	Krylya Sovetov - Rodina Moscow	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLLTL
- FC Orenburg
Russian Cup
15.10.26	Rubin Kazan - Orenburg	1:4 ✺
Russian Premier League
10.10.26	Orenburg - Dynamo Makhachkala	4:0 ✺
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Orenburg - Tekstilshchik Ivanovo	3:2 ✺
03.10.26	Lokomotiv Moscow - Orenburg	2:0 ✺
Russian Premier League
17.09.26	Orenburg - Krasnodar	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.8 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Russian Cup
18.08.26	Rodina Moscow - Orenburg	1:4

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