What is the expert prediction for Al-Nassr Riyadh vs Gamba Osaka?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Al-Nassr Riyadh vs Gamba Osaka. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Al-Nassr Riyadh vs Gamba Osaka Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Saturday, May 16, 2026)

Match Info

AFC Champions League 2 - Play Offs - Final

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: King Saud University Stadium (Riyadh)

Where to Watch on TV:


Afghanistan	Ariana
Africa	Sporty TV, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, Q Football Asia, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Chile	Disney+
China	iQIYI, Migu
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Hong-kong	HOY TV
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Indonesia	RCTI, RCTI+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 3
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	TDM Desporto
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Canal 11
Romania	AntenaPLAY
Russia	TV Start, TV Start Triumph
Singapore	meWATCH
Slovenia	SportKlub 5
South-korea	Coupang Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Tajikistan	Varzish Sport
Turkey	Spor Smart 1
Ukraine	Sport 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Sport 1 Baltic


	Al-Nassr Riyadh		Gamba Osaka

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.42	4.55	6.1
	1.45	4.73	6.85
	1.47	4.34	6.48	Watch
	1.4	4	5.75
	1.44	4.57	6.27	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↑ (1.39)	4.44 ↓ (4.57)	6.29 ↓ (7.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al-Nassr Riyadh
64.4%

Draw
20.9%

Gamba Osaka
14.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.3%

20.5%

12.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.9%

19.5%

11.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al-Nassr Riyadh has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Gamba Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Nassr Riyadh than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Al-Nassr Riyadh, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gamba Osaka than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Al-Nassr will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Gamba Osaka will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Bento (G) 12. Boushal N. 3. Simakan M. 26. Martinez I. 23. Yahya A. 29. Ghareeb A. 19. Al Hassan A. 96. Al Nasser S. 10. Mane S. 79. Joao Felix 7. Ronaldo C. (C)	18. Araki R. (G) 15. Kishimoto T. 5. Miura G. 20. Nakatani S. (C) 21. Hatsuse R. 16. Suzuki T. 27. Mito R. 17. Yamashita R. 11. Jebali I. 8. Meshino R. 23. Hummet D.
Substitutes
8. Abdulkareem H. 1. Al Aqidi N. (G) 2. Al Ghannam S. 9. Al Hamdan A. 83. Al Najdi S. 53. Al Otaibi A. (G) 4. Al Sharari N. 70. Aman A. 20. Angelo 21. Coman K. 60. Haqawi S. 16. Maran M.	13. Abe S. 1. Higashiguchi M. (G) 22. Ichimori J. (G) 19. Ikegaya G. 10. Kurata S. 42. Minamino H. 33. Nakano S. 44. Okunuki K. 40. Toyama S. 7. Usami T. 97. Welton 36. Yamamoto T.
Coaches
Jesus J.	Wissing J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
30', 0 - 1, Hummet D. ⚽, Jebali I. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Hummet D. ↓, Minamino H. ↑,
46', Boushal N. ↓, Al Ghannam S. ↑,
49', Al Aqidi N. 🟨,
56', Al Nasser S. ↓, Angelo ↑,
60', Suzuki T. ↓, Abe S. ↑,
60', Yamashita R. ↓, Okunuki K. ↑,
64', Ghareeb A. 🟨,
66', Ghareeb A. ↓, Coman K. ↑,
66', Yahya A. ↓, Al Najdi S. ↑,
70', Meshino R. ↓, Welton ↑,
80', Al Hassan A. ↓, Al Hamdan A. ↑,
80', Jebali I. ↓, Usami T. ↑,

Preview

Al-Nassr is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Gamba Osaka has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Al-Nassr is the team to beat.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Nassr Riyadh
Saudi Professional League
12.05.26	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al-Hilal	1:1 ✺
07.05.26	Al-Shabab Riyadh - Al-Nassr Riyadh	2:4 ✺
03.05.26	Al-Qadisiya - Al-Nassr Riyadh	3:1 ✺
29.04.26	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al-Ahli Jeddah	2:0 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
22.04.26	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al-Ahli Doha	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 TWLWW
- Gamba Osaka
Japan J1 League
10.05.26	Gamba Osaka - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0:1 ✺
06.05.26	Nagoya Grampus - Gamba Osaka	2:1 ✺
02.05.26	Gamba Osaka - Vissel Kobe	5:0 ✺
29.04.26	Kyoto Sanga - Gamba Osaka	2:1 penalties ✺
25.04.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Gamba Osaka	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LLWLW

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Al-Nassr Riyadh - Gamba Osaka: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide