Match Info

AFC Champions League - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 30 April 2025, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: King Saud University Stadium (Riyadh) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Faghani A. (Irn)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 2
Argentina	13:30	Disney+
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA AFC, beIN Sports MENA AFC, beIN Sports MENA AFC, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	02:30	Paramount+
Bangladesh	22:30	T Sports
Brazil	13:30	Disney+, ESPN 4
Bulgaria	19:30	Nova Sport
Chile	12:30	Disney+
China	00:30	iQIYI, Migu
Colombia	11:30	Disney+
Cote D Ivoire	16:30	RTI 1
Croatia	18:30	SportKlub 5
Finland	19:30	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3
Germany	18:30	Sportdigital+
Hong Kong	00:30	HOY TV
India	22:00	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Indonesia	23:30	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel, RCTI, RCTI+, Vidio
Iran	20:00	Persiana Sports
Iraq	19:30	Al Rabiaa Sport 2
Israel	19:30	Sport 2
Japan	01:30	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	22:30	Sport+
Kyrgyzstan	22:30	KTRK Sports
Macao	00:30	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	00:30	Astro Arena Bola, Astro Go, Sooka
Maldives	21:30	Medianet
Mexico	10:30	Disney+
Myanmar	23:00	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	18:30	Canal+
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean
North Macedonia	18:30	MaxTV GO
Peru	11:30	Disney+
Philippines	00:30	Cignal Play, Matchday+, Premier Football
Portugal	17:30	Canal 11
Qatar	19:30	Shoof
Romania	19:30	AntenaPLAY
Russia	19:30	Okko Sport, TV Start, TV Start Triumph
Saudi Arabia	19:30	Shahid VIP, SSC Sports 1
Serbia	18:30	Arena Sport 6, SportKlub 5
Singapore	00:30	meWATCH
Slovenia	18:30	SportKlub 4
South Korea	01:30	Tving, tvN Sports
Spain	18:30	LaLiga+
Sweden	18:30	TV4 Play, TV4 Sportkanalen
Switzerland	18:30	Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2
Tajikistan	21:30	Futbol TV, Varzish Sport
Turkey	19:30	D Smart GO, Spor Smart 1
Ukraine	19:30	Sport 1
United Arab Emirates	20:30	Abu Dhabi Sports 1
Uruguay	13:30	Disney+
Usa	12:30	Paramount+
Uzbekistan	21:30	MTRK Sport
Venezuela	12:30	Disney+
Vietnam	23:30	FPT Play
International	16:30	Onefootball, Sport 1 Baltic, Triller TV+


	Al-Nassr Riyadh		Kawasaki Frontale

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.35	5.5	7	Watch
	1.36	5.4	6.8
	1.34	5.79	7.9
	1.39	5.2	7.1	Watch
	1.33	5	7.5	Watch
	1.35	5.55	7.7	Watch
	1.36	5.4	6.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.62)	5.41 ↑ (4.5)	7.26 ↑ (4.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al-Nassr Riyadh
69.6%

Draw
17.4%

Kawasaki Frontale
13%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

59.1%

21.3%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.7%

20.7%

19.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al-Nassr Riyadh has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Al-Nassr Riyadh's performance.

Kawasaki Frontale has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Kawasaki Frontale might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Nassr Riyadh than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Al-Nassr Riyadh that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kawasaki Frontale than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Kawasaki Frontale could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	11.1%	5.6%

Al Nassr Riyadh - Kawasaki Frontale Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Al-Nassr (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Kawasaki (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

EH -1 - Al-Nassr (1.85) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH -2 - Al-Nassr (2.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Al-Nassr Riyadh will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.47% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Al-Nassr (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Kawasaki (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Bento (G) 2. Al Ghannam S. 3. Simakan M. 78. Lajami A. 12. Boushal N. 25. Otavio 11. Brozovic M. 19. Al Hassan A. 10. Mane S. 9. Duran J. 7. Ronaldo C. (C)	98. Thebault-Yamaguchi L. (G) 31. van Wermeskerken S. 2. Takai K. 35. Maruyama Y. (C) 13. Miura S. 77. Yamamoto Y. 8. Tachibanada K. 37. Ito T. 16. Ozeki Y. 23. Marcinho 32. Kanda S.
Substitutes
4. Al Fatil M. 22. Al Harbi A. (G) 17. Al Khaibari A. 83. Al Najdi S. 36. Al Najjar R. (G) 8. Al Sulaiheem A. 20. Angelo 29. Ghareeb A. 27. Laporte A. 16. Marran M. 80. Wesley 23. Yahya A.	21. Ando S. (G) 9. Erison 44. Haydar C. 41. Ienaga A. 1. Jung Sung-Ryong (G) 19. Kawahara S. 28. Patrick Verhon 5. Sasaki A. 30. Segawa Y. 15. Tanabe S. 14. Wakizaka Y. 20. Yamada S.
Coaches
Pioli S.	Hasebe S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
10', 0 - 1, Ito T. ⚽,
28', 1 - 1, Mane S. ⚽, Boushal N. (A),
37', Lajami A. 🟨,
41', 1 - 2, Ozeki Y. ⚽,
44', Lajami A. ↓, Laporte A. ↑,
44', Al Hassan A. ↓, Angelo ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Ozeki Y. ↓, Wakizaka Y. ↑,
46', Kanda S. ↓, Erison ↑,
60', Tachibanada K. ↓, Kawahara S. ↑,
64', Marcinho ↓, Ienaga A. ↑,
70', van Wermeskerken S. ↓, Sasaki A. ↑,
76', 1 - 3, Ienaga A. ⚽, Erison (A),
77', Al Ghannam S. ↓, Yahya A. ↑,
78', Brozovic M. ↓, Wesley ↑,
87', 2 - 3, Yahya A. ⚽, Wesley (A),

Preview

One of the most exciting matches of the day will feature two top-of-the-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

Al-Nassr is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins - 4).

Recent matches Kawasaki is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games, wins - 1).

Al-Nassr could have advantage in physical - more days for rest in last days.

Recently, Al-Nassr had a set of guest games.

In this match, Al-Nassr is absolute favorite.

Our prediction is that Al-Nassr will win today's game, with odds 1.35.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Nassr Riyadh
AFC Champions League
26.04.25	Yokohama F. Marinos - Al-Nassr Riyadh	1:4 ✺
Saudi Professional League
22.04.25	Damac - Al-Nassr Riyadh	2:3 ✺
18.04.25	Al-Qadisiya - Al-Nassr Riyadh	2:1 ✺
12.04.25	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al-Riyadh	2:1 ✺
04.04.25	Al-Hilal - Al-Nassr Riyadh	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WWLWW
- Kawasaki Frontale
AFC Champions League
27.04.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Al-Sadd	3:2 ET ✺
Japan J1 League
20.04.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Tokyo Verdy	0:0 ✺
16.04.25	Vissel Kobe - Kawasaki Frontale	2:1 ✺
12.04.25	Shimizu S-Pulse - Kawasaki Frontale	1:1 ✺
09.04.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Yokohama F. Marinos	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WTLTT

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