Match Info

AFC Champions League - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 30 April 2025, Wednesday

Location: King Saud University Stadium (Riyadh)

Referee: Faghani A. (Irn)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Al-Nassr Riyadh		Kawasaki Frontale

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.35	5.5	7	Watch
	1.36	5.4	6.8
	1.34	5.79	7.9
	1.39	5.2	7.1	Watch
	1.33	5	7.5	Watch
	1.35	5.55	7.7	Watch
	1.36	5.4	6.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.62)	5.41 ↑ (4.5)	7.26 ↑ (4.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al-Nassr Riyadh
69.6%

Draw
17.4%

Kawasaki Frontale
13%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.1%

21.3%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.7%

20.7%

19.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al-Nassr Riyadh has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Al-Nassr Riyadh's performance.

Kawasaki Frontale has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Kawasaki Frontale might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Nassr Riyadh than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Al-Nassr Riyadh that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kawasaki Frontale than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Kawasaki Frontale could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	11.1%	5.6%

Al Nassr Riyadh - Kawasaki Frontale Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Al-Nassr (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Kawasaki (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

EH -1 - Al-Nassr (1.85) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH -2 - Al-Nassr (2.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Al-Nassr Riyadh will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.47% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Al-Nassr (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Kawasaki (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Bento (G) 2. Al Ghannam S. 3. Simakan M. 78. Lajami A. 12. Boushal N. 25. Otavio 11. Brozovic M. 19. Al Hassan A. 10. Mane S. 9. Duran J. 7. Ronaldo C. (C)	98. Thebault-Yamaguchi L. (G) 31. van Wermeskerken S. 2. Takai K. 35. Maruyama Y. (C) 13. Miura S. 77. Yamamoto Y. 8. Tachibanada K. 37. Ito T. 16. Ozeki Y. 23. Marcinho 32. Kanda S.
Substitutes
4. Al Fatil M. 22. Al Harbi A. (G) 17. Al Khaibari A. 83. Al Najdi S. 36. Al Najjar R. (G) 8. Al Sulaiheem A. 20. Angelo 29. Ghareeb A. 27. Laporte A. 16. Marran M. 80. Wesley 23. Yahya A.	21. Ando S. (G) 9. Erison 44. Haydar C. 41. Ienaga A. 1. Jung Sung-Ryong (G) 19. Kawahara S. 28. Patrick Verhon 5. Sasaki A. 30. Segawa Y. 15. Tanabe S. 14. Wakizaka Y. 20. Yamada S.
Coaches
Pioli S.	Hasebe S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
10', 0 - 1, Ito T. ⚽,
28', 1 - 1, Mane S. ⚽, Boushal N. (A),
37', Lajami A. 🟨,
41', 1 - 2, Ozeki Y. ⚽,
44', Lajami A. ↓, Laporte A. ↑,
44', Al Hassan A. ↓, Angelo ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Ozeki Y. ↓, Wakizaka Y. ↑,
46', Kanda S. ↓, Erison ↑,
60', Tachibanada K. ↓, Kawahara S. ↑,
64', Marcinho ↓, Ienaga A. ↑,
70', van Wermeskerken S. ↓, Sasaki A. ↑,
76', 1 - 3, Ienaga A. ⚽, Erison (A),
77', Al Ghannam S. ↓, Yahya A. ↑,
78', Brozovic M. ↓, Wesley ↑,
87', 2 - 3, Yahya A. ⚽, Wesley (A),

Preview

One of the most exciting matches of the day will feature two top-of-the-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

Al-Nassr is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins - 4).

Recent matches Kawasaki is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games, wins - 1).

Al-Nassr could have advantage in physical - more days for rest in last days.

Recently, Al-Nassr had a set of guest games.

In this match, Al-Nassr is absolute favorite.

Our prediction is that Al-Nassr will win today's game, with odds 1.35.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Nassr Riyadh
AFC Champions League
26.04.25	Yokohama F. Marinos - Al-Nassr Riyadh	1:4 ✺
Saudi Professional League
22.04.25	Damac - Al-Nassr Riyadh	2:3 ✺
18.04.25	Al-Qadisiya - Al-Nassr Riyadh	2:1 ✺
12.04.25	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al-Riyadh	2:1 ✺
04.04.25	Al-Hilal - Al-Nassr Riyadh	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WWLWW
- Kawasaki Frontale
AFC Champions League
27.04.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Al-Sadd	3:2 ET ✺
Japan J1 League
20.04.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Tokyo Verdy	0:0 ✺
16.04.25	Vissel Kobe - Kawasaki Frontale	2:1 ✺
12.04.25	Shimizu S-Pulse - Kawasaki Frontale	1:1 ✺
09.04.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Yokohama F. Marinos	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WTLTT

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