Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 9

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Silvio Piola (Novara)

Referee: Aldi C. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia


	Novara		Cittadella

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.75	3.10	2.25
	2.95	2.95	2.20	Watch
	3.19	3.16	2.34
	2.95	3.12	2.34	Watch
	3.05	3.10	2.30
	3.03	3.26	2.31	Watch
	3.00	3.10	2.26
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.99 ↓ (3.42)	3.11 ↓ (3.28)	2.29 ↑ (2)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Novara
30.6%

Draw
29.4%

Cittadella
40%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

26.6%

27.8%

45.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.5%

26.6%

47.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Novara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Cittadella has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cittadella might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Novara than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Novara that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cittadella than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cittadella could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Novara - Cittadella Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Brancolini F. (G) 28. Cannavaro A. 58. Miceli M. 15. Khailoti O. 3. Lartey S. 19. Collodel R. (C) 99. Basso G. 70. Valdesi A. 14. Romano M. 11. Ledonne N. 9. Zuppel D.	69. Zanellati A. (G) 24. Gobbato M. 4. Toffanin F. 87. Martella B. 19. D'Alessio F. 33. Frisenna G. 5. Barberis A. (C) 23. Paolucci L. 43. Ndrecka A. 9. Mensah D. 10. Antonucci M.
Substitutes
22. Anfossi P. (G) 36. Arboscello R. 1. Boseggia E. (G) 21. Cortese A. 20. da Graca C. 71. D'Alessio L. 8. Dell'Erba D. 7. Lanini E. 5. Lorenzini F. 23. Zambataro E.	8. Amatucci F. 7. Anastasia E. 71. Ceccarelli A. 14. Crialese C. 16. Ekuban J. 99. Fabbro M. 18. Ignatov E. 2. Maniero L. (G) 55. Redolfi A. 20. Sangalli M. 22. Sommacal C. (G) 36. Zilio A.
Coaches
Iori M.	Musso R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', Zuppel D. 🟥,
19', Romano M. ↓, da Graca C. ↑,
43', 0 - 1, Barberis A. ⚽, Mensah D. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Martella B. ↓, Zilio A. ↑,
60', Mensah D. ↓, Ekuban J. ↑,
60', Basso G. ↓, Arboscello R. ↑,
60', Valdesi A. ↓, Zambataro E. ↑,
73', Antonucci M. ↓, Fabbro M. ↑,
73', Frisenna G. ↓, Amatucci F. ↑,
74', Cannavaro A. ↓, Dell'Erba D. ↑,
74', Ledonne N. ↓, Lanini E. ↑,
75', Zambataro E. 🟨,
86', Paolucci L. ↓, Ignatov E. ↑,
86', 0 - 2, Ignatov E. ⚽,

Preview

A competitive mid-table side looks to challenge an upper-table opponent (ranked 11th and 1st in the Promotion - Serie B).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Novara won 2.

In recent outings, Novara has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Cittadella shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 11 head-to-head meetings, Novara has recorded 3 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 19:18 (averaging 1.7:1.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Novara against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with 4:5 goals (averaging 0.8:1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Cittadella	10	9	0	1	17:4	13	27
13	Novara	10	2	4	4	10:14	-4	10

Last Results with these Odds

Novara - the odds 3.42 are the expected chance of winning is 26.63%, but this team recently wins 17% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Novara Calcio
Italian Serie C Group A
04.10.26	Dolomiti Bellunesi - Novara	1:2 ✺
26.09.26	Novara - Ospitaletto	0:2 ✺
20.09.26	Novara - Carpi	2:2 ✺
17.09.26	Lumezzane - Novara	0:0 ✺
13.09.26	Novara - Pergolettese	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLTTL
- AS Cittadella
Italian Serie C Group A
03.10.26	Cittadella - AlbinoLeffe	1:2 ✺
26.09.26	Cittadella - Lecco	3:0 ✺
20.09.26	Ospitaletto - Cittadella	0:1 ✺
17.09.26	Cittadella - Juventus U23	2:0 ✺
13.09.26	Carpi - Cittadella	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
19.04.26	Novara - Cittadella	0:1
14.12.25	Cittadella - Novara	2:2
Coppa Italia
30.09.20	Cittadella - Novara	3:1
Italian Serie B
11.02.18	Cittadella - Novara	1:3
16.09.17	Novara - Cittadella	1:0
11.02.17	Novara - Cittadella	1:1
17.09.16	Cittadella - Novara	3:1

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