Match Info

J1 League - Round 8

Date: 2 April 2025, Wednesday

Location: Denka Big Swan Stadium (Niigata)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	QQ Sports
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Albirex Niigata		Avispa Fukuoka

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.1	3.1	Watch
	2.5	3	2.9
	2.46	2.92	2.97	Watch
	2.68	2.97	2.93	Watch
	2.45	2.9	3
	2.45	3.1	3.1	Watch
	2.49	2.95	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↑ (2.31)	2.99 ↓ (3.1)	3 ↓ (3.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Albirex Niigata
37.5%

Draw
31.3%

Avispa Fukuoka
31.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.6%

30.3%

29.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42%

31.4%

28.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Albirex Niigata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Avispa Fukuoka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Albirex Niigata than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Avispa Fukuoka than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	0%	72.7%

Albirex Niigata - Avispa Fukuoka Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Albirex Niigata will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Avispa Fukuoka will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Avispa Fukuoka: 46.4% – 99%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fujita K. (G) 25. Fujiwara S. 2. Geria J. 5. Fitzgerald M. 42. Hashimoto K. 16. Komi Y. 19. Hoshi Y. 6. Akiyama H. 30. Okumura J. 9. Yamura K. 41. Hasegawa M.	31. Murakami M. (G) 29. Maejima Y. 37. Tashiro M. 20. Ando T. 77. Shichi T. 15. Akino H. 88. Matsuoka D. 11. Miki T. 14. Nago S. 22. Fujimoto K. 13. Ben Khalifa N.
Substitutes
35. Chiba K. 11. Danilo Gomes 15. Hayakawa F. 46. Kasai K. 8. Miyamoto E. 4. Okamoto S. 99. Ono Y. 18. Wakatsuki Y. 23. Yoshimitsu D. (G)	47. Hashimoto Y. 18. Iwasaki Y. 5. Kamijima T. 25. Kitajima Y. 8. Konno K. 1. Nagaishi T. (G) 6. Shigemi M. 17. Wellington 9. Zahedi S.
Coaches
Kimori D.	Kim Myong-hwi

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
58', Ben Khalifa N. ↓, Zahedi S. ↑,
61', 0 - 1, Tashiro M. ⚽, Zahedi S. (A),
62', Yamura K. ↓, Ono Y. ↑,
62', Okumura J. ↓, Danilo Gomes ↑,
71', Nago S. ↓, Konno K. ↑,
72', Akino H. ↓, Kitajima Y. ↑,
78', Kitajima Y. 🟨,
78', Hasegawa M. ↓, Miyamoto E. ↑,
78', Hoshi Y. ↓, Kasai K. ↑,
86', Komi Y. ↓, Wakatsuki Y. ↑,
87', Fujimoto K. ↓, Iwasaki Y. ↑,
87', Shichi T. ↓, Kamijima T. ↑,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League and 10).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Niigata won 3.

Recent matches Niigata is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Avispa Fukuoka in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in Avispa Fukuoka: Hisashi J. (Knee Injury) Ikeda J. (Knee Injury) Oda I. (Knee Injury)

Last 15 head-to-head matches Niigata won 7 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 18:19 (average 1.2:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Niigata won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 9:12 (average 1.3:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Albirex Niigata
Japan J1 League
29.03.25	Albirex Niigata - Gamba Osaka	3:3 ✺
Japan J League Cup
20.03.25	Vanraure Hachinohe - Albirex Niigata	1:2 penalties ✺
Japan J1 League
15.03.25	Machida Zelvia - Albirex Niigata	1:0 ✺
08.03.25	Albirex Niigata - Tokyo Verdy	2:2 ✺
02.03.25	Albirex Niigata - Cerezo Osaka	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 TWLTT
- Avispa Fukuoka
Japan J1 League
29.03.25	Avispa Fukuoka - Machida Zelvia	2:2 ✺
Japan J League Cup
20.03.25	Ryūkyū - Avispa Fukuoka	0:2 ✺
Japan J1 League
15.03.25	Avispa Fukuoka - Tokyo	1:0 ✺
09.03.25	Kyoto Sanga - Avispa Fukuoka	0:1 ✺
01.03.25	Vissel Kobe - Avispa Fukuoka	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.2 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
17.08.24	Avispa Fukuoka - Albirex Niigata	0:1
25.05.24	Albirex Niigata - Avispa Fukuoka	1:2
18.08.23	Avispa Fukuoka - Albirex Niigata	0:1
Japan J League Cup
24.05.23	Albirex Niigata - Avispa Fukuoka	1:2
Japan J1 League
15.04.23	Albirex Niigata - Avispa Fukuoka	3:2
Japan J League Cup
08.03.23	Avispa Fukuoka - Albirex Niigata	1:0
Japan J2 League
14.10.20	Albirex Niigata - Avispa Fukuoka	1:2

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