Match Info

J1 League - Round 7

Date: 29 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Best Denki Stadium (Fukuoka)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	QQ Sports
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Avispa Fukuoka		Machida Zelvia

	1	X	2
	3	2.9	2.63	Watch
	3.1	2.75	2.6
	2.97	2.77	2.57	Watch
	3.45	3	2.45
	3.11	2.82	2.67	Watch
	3.1	2.7	2.5
	3.11	2.98	2.53	Watch
	3	2.8	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.11 ↓ (3.36)	2.84 ↓ (2.93)	2.57 ↑ (2.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Avispa Fukuoka
30.3%

Draw
33.1%

Machida Zelvia
36.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28%

32.1%

39.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.5%

31.5%

40.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Avispa Fukuoka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Machida Zelvia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Avispa Fukuoka than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Machida Zelvia than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	66.7%	11.1%

Avispa Fukuoka - Machida Zelvia Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Avispa Fukuoka will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Machida Zelvia will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Murakami M. (G) 37. Tashiro M. 20. Ando T. 77. Shichi T. 29. Maejima Y. 88. Matsuoka D. 11. Miki T. 22. Fujimoto K. 8. Konno K. 25. Kitajima Y. 9. Zahedi S.	1. Tani K. (G) 4. Kikuchi R. 50. Okamura D. 3. Shoji G. 26. Hayashi K. 23. Shirasaki R. 16. Mae H. 19. Nakayama Y. 20. Nishimura T. 7. Soma Y. 90. Oh Se-Hun
Substitutes
15. Akino H. 47. Hashimoto Y. 18. Iwasaki Y. 5. Kamijima T. 7. Kanamori T. 14. Nago S. 3. Nara T. 24. Obata Y. (G) 17. Wellington	5. Dresevic I. 15. Duke M. 9. Fujio S. 49. Kuwayama K. 6. Mochizuki H. 13. Morita T. (G) 22. Numata T. 8. Sento K. 99. Takahashi D.
Coaches
Kim Myong-hwi	Kuroda G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Okamura D. ⚽, Soma Y. (A),
22', 1 - 1, Ando T. ⚽, Kitajima Y. (A),
25', Okamura D. 🟨,
42', Miki T. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Oh Se-Hun ↓, Kuwayama K. ↑,
60', Kitajima Y. ↓, Nago S. ↑,
65', 2 - 1, Tani K. (Own goal),
66', Soma Y. ↓, Fujio S. ↑,
73', Shirasaki R. ↓, Sento K. ↑,
73', Fujimoto K. ↓, Iwasaki Y. ↑,
73', Zahedi S. ↓, Wellington ↑,
73', Hayashi K. ↓, Mochizuki H. ↑,
74', Kikuchi R. ↓, Dresevic I. ↑,
84', 2 - 2, Sento K. ⚽, Fujio S. (A),
88', Maejima Y. ↓, Hashimoto Y. ↑,
89', Konno K. ↓, Kanamori T. ↑,

Preview

One of the most exciting matches of the day will feature two top-of-the-table teams (ranked 6 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Avispa Fukuoka won 2.

Instantly two teams are in a excellent shape.

Machida Zelvia could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Machida Zelvia will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in Avispa Fukuoka: Hisashi J. (Knee Injury) Ikeda J. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Machida Zelvia: Narasaka T. (Knee Injury)

Last 11 head-to-head matches Avispa Fukuoka won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 9:15 (average 0.8:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Avispa Fukuoka won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 5:11 (average 1:2.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Avispa Fukuoka
Japan J League Cup
20.03.25	Ryūkyū - Avispa Fukuoka	0:2 ✺
Japan J1 League
15.03.25	Avispa Fukuoka - Tokyo	1:0 ✺
09.03.25	Kyoto Sanga - Avispa Fukuoka	0:1 ✺
01.03.25	Vissel Kobe - Avispa Fukuoka	0:1 ✺
26.02.25	Avispa Fukuoka - Kawasaki Frontale	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.5 WWWWL
- Machida Zelvia
Japan J1 League
15.03.25	Machida Zelvia - Albirex Niigata	1:0 ✺
08.03.25	Yokohama FC - Machida Zelvia	0:2 ✺
02.03.25	Nagoya Grampus - Machida Zelvia	1:2 ✺
26.02.25	Machida Zelvia - Tokyo Verdy	0:1 ✺
22.02.25	Tokyo - Machida Zelvia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
14.09.24	Avispa Fukuoka - Machida Zelvia	0:3
22.06.24	Machida Zelvia - Avispa Fukuoka	0:0
Japan J2 League
21.10.20	Machida Zelvia - Avispa Fukuoka	0:0
13.09.20	Avispa Fukuoka - Machida Zelvia	2:1
14.07.19	Machida Zelvia - Avispa Fukuoka	0:2
13.04.19	Avispa Fukuoka - Machida Zelvia	0:2
04.11.18	Machida Zelvia - Avispa Fukuoka	2:1

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