Match Info

ENGLAND: National League Cup - Round 1

Date: 15 October 2024, Tuesday

Location: Recreation Ground (Aldershot)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	National League TV


	Aldershot Town		Derby County U21

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.8	3.5
	1.75	4	3.35
	1.74	4.17	3.67	Watch
	1.77	4.1	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (2.22)	4.02 ↑ (3.6)	3.54 ↑ (2.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 8.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aldershot Town
51.9%

Draw
22.6%

Derby County U21
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.8%

25.2%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.7%

24.1%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aldershot Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Aldershot Town's performance.

Derby County U21 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Derby County U21 might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aldershot Town than the current prediction. (-9.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Aldershot Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County U21 than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Derby County U21 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Aldershot Town - Derby County U21 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. van Stappershoef J. (G) 22. Barham J. 2. Byrd L. 9. Corbett K. 35. Ellison D. 27. Henry J. 17. Jones A. (C) 11. Jones R. 5. Maghoma C. 32. Maja E. 18. Scott O.	1. Price H. (G) 11. Allen C. 2. Bardell M. (C) 7. Barkhuizen T. 9. Brown D. 3. Gill T. 5. Osayande A. 6. Robinson K. 4. Rooney J. 10. Stepien-Iwumene A. 8. Thompson L.
Substitutes
28. Dewhurst M. (G) 33. Elliott M. 23. Ghandour H. 7. Hargreaves C. 24. Mullins M. 36. Walsh B. 6. Widdrington T.	17. Eames O. 16. Ebuka C. 18. Hawkins H. 12. Moloney R. 15. Perry J. 14. Spencer M. 13. Thompson J. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Jones R. ⚽,
23', Robinson K. 🟨,
32', 2 - 0, Jones A. ⚽, Scott O. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Thompson L. ↓, Hawkins H. ↑,
46', Barkhuizen T. ↓, Perry J. ↑,
46', Byrd L. ↓, Widdrington T. ↑,
46', Maja E. ↓, Hargreaves C. ↑,
50', Corbett K. 🟨,
58', Barham J. ↓, Ghandour H. ↑,
59', 3 - 0, Jones R. ⚽,
61', Rooney J. ↓, Moloney R. ↑,
61', Stepien-Iwumene A. ↓, Eames O. ↑,
71', Jones A. ↓, Mullins M. ↑,
79', Osayande A. ↓, Ebuka C. ↑,
79', Henry J. ↓, Walsh B. ↑,

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aldershot Town
English FA Cup
12.10.24	Aldershot Town - Bath City	2:1 ✺
English National League
05.10.24	Fylde - Aldershot Town	5:2 ✺
28.09.24	Yeovil Town - Aldershot Town	1:1 ✺
24.09.24	Aldershot Town - Barnet	0:1 ✺
21.09.24	Aldershot Town - York City	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WLTLT
- Derby County U21
English Premier League 2
07.10.24	Sunderland U21 - Derby County U21	6:0 ✺
30.09.24	Derby County U21 - Wolverhampton Wanderers U21	4:1 ✺
21.09.24	Liverpool U21 - Derby County U21	3:1 ✺
English Premier League Cup
13.09.24	Derby County U21 - Bournemouth U21	2:3 ✺
English Premier League 2
30.08.24	Derby County U21 - Newcastle United U21	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LWLLW

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