The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 24.5%
Draw 26.3%
Celaya 49.2%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
22.5%
25.3%
52.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
21.5%
26.5%
54.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Alebrijes de Oaxaca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)
Celaya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alebrijes de Oaxaca than the current prediction. (-3%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celaya than the current prediction. (+5.3%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Celaya could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
16.7%
16.7%
66.7%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Celaya Predictions
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Alebrijes de Oaxaca will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Celaya will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Paz Vasquez O. (G) 19. Ballesteros O. 31. Gil I. 10. Gonzalez Sandoval A. 13. Martinez J. 11. Mascorro H. 8. Morales F. 4. Noya R. (C) 15. Sanchez Lopez J. A. 16. Santos E. 14. Vazquez Hernandez A.
29. Espinoza G. (G) 22. Baltazar C. 31. Barragan M. 2. Cervantes D. 8. de los Santos L. 10. Dominguez A. 28. Gamboa J. 14. Manriquez S. 3. Monreal E. 20. Tovar J. 23. Vazquez J. (C)
Substitutes
5. Esqueda Romero J. A. 21. Fernandez Sanchez J. E. (G) 29. Franco J. 30. Garcia B. 24. Huerta Espinoza R. A. 6. Luna A. 25. Mayo Canul M. A. 28. Nunez J. E. 22. Ochoa Sanchez J. A. 23. Ruiz R.
25. Blanco D. 6. Del Angel E. 170. Gonzalez G. 136. Luna E. G. 7. Martinez J. 1. Mora-Mora S. (G) 11. Tejeda D. 9. Wlk Dure A. S.
Coaches
Gutierrez C.
Blanco Soto S. R.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
22', 1 - 0, Ballesteros O. ⚽,
29', Ballesteros O. ↓, Garcia B. ↑,
35', 1 - 1, Cervantes D. ⚽,
37', de los Santos L. 🟨,
45+2', Manriquez S. 🟨,
45+6', Gonzalez Sandoval A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 4)
46', Gil I. ↓, Mayo Canul M. A. ↑,
56', Garcia B. 🟨,
59', 1 - 2, Gamboa J. ⚽,
61', 1 - 3, Dominguez A. ⚽,
64', Manriquez S. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
64', de los Santos L. ↓, Del Angel E. ↑,
67', Vazquez Hernandez A. ↓, Franco J. ↑,
70', 1 - 4, Dominguez A. ⚽,
70', Gamboa J. ↓, Tejeda D. ↑,
76', Vazquez J. ↓, Blanco D. ↑,
76', Barragan M. ↓, Wlk Dure A. S. ↑,
81', Morales F. 🟨,
85', Tejeda D. 🟨,
89', 1 - 5, Wlk Dure A. S. ⚽,
90+1', Monreal E. 🟨,
Preview
A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 14 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Alebrijes de Oaxaca won 2.
Both teams are now playing unstable.
Recently Celaya have a series of home games.
Celaya will have a mini benefit in this match.
Last 20 head-to-head matches Alebrijes de Oaxaca won 9 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 18:20 (average 0.9:1).
Including matches at home between the teams Alebrijes de Oaxaca won 6 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 12:6 (average 1.2:0.6).