The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Alianza Atlético 32.8%
Draw 29.5%
Universitario de Deportes 37.7%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
31.8%
30.1%
38.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
31.5%
30.2%
38.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Alianza Atlético has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)
Universitario de Deportes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Atlético than the current prediction. (-1.3%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universitario de Deportes than the current prediction. (+0.6%)
Alianza Atlético - Universitario de Deportes Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
31. Rivadeneyra S. (G) 16. Fernandez S. 2. Suarez R. 6. Lujan J. 24. Gordillo A. 10. Diaz G. 23. Munoz A. 15. Lupu H. (C) 22. del Castillo J. 17. Penilla C. 27. Ingratti J.
1. Romero D. (G) 2. Fara C. 3. Riveros W. 4. Santamaria A. 19. Flores E. (C) 24. Polo A. 10. Calcaterra H. 17. Concha J. 33. Inga C. 18. Lapadula G. 20. Valera A.
Substitutes
37. Delgado J. 25. Guzman W. 11. Larios Saavedra G. A. 19. Mendieta J. 29. Molina J. 20. Perez J. 21. Perleche E. 95. Prieto D. (G) 9. Robaldo V.
30. Alzugaray L. 29. Corzo A. 8. Fertoli H. 70. Gutierrez J. 23. Murrugarra J. 39. Quispe Cordova P. A. 15. Requena J. 11. Rivera J. 25. Vargas M. (G)
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 3)
1', Calcaterra H. 🟨,
8', Fernandez S. 🟨,
15', 0 - 1, Suarez R. (Own goal),
23', 0 - 2, Polo A. ⚽, Flores E. (A),
42', Munoz A. 🟨,
45', 0 - 3, Valera A. ⚽, Lapadula G. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Fernandez S. ↓, Guzman W. ↑,
46', del Castillo J. ↓, Perez J. ↑,
46', Ingratti J. ↓, Robaldo V. ↑,
52', Santamaria A. 🟨,
56', 1 - 3, Munoz A. ⚽, Penilla C. (A),
57', Flores E. ↓, Alzugaray L. ↑,
66', Gordillo A. ↓, Perleche E. ↑,
67', Concha J. ↓, Murrugarra J. ↑,
67', Lapadula G. ↓, Rivera J. ↑,
75', Munoz A. ↓, Molina J. ↑,
80', Valera A. ↓, Quispe Cordova P. A. ↑,
81', Calcaterra H. ↓, Fertoli H. ↑,
82', 1 - 4, Lujan J. (Own goal),
90+2', Guzman W. 🟨,
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alianza Atlético won 2.
Alianza Atlético has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 4 wins).
Uni de Deportes has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
Alianza Atlético may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
Doubtful / questionable for Alianza Atlético: Villegas J. C.
(Knee Injury).
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Alianza Atlético has recorded 3 wins, 4 draws, and 13 losses, with a goal aggregate of 19:41 (averaging 1:2.1 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Alianza Atlético against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 7 losses, with 10:20 goals (averaging 1.1:2.2 per game).
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Rivadeneyra S. (G) 
Suarez R. 
Penilla C. 
Riveros W. 
Molina J. 
Gutierrez J. 
Vargas M. (G) 
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