Match Info

Liga 1 - Clausura - Round 12

Date: 1 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Campeones del 36 (Sullana)

Referee: Quiroz J. C. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Fanatiz
Peru	Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz, Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Fox


	Alianza Atlético		Universitario de Deportes

	1	X	2
	7	3.8	1.53	Watch
	6.1	3.6	1.58	Watch
	6.33	3.85	1.57
	6.80	3.77	1.52	Watch
	6.48	3.74	1.54	Watch
	3.66	3.33	1.93
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.06 ↑ (3.75)	3.68 ↑ (3.32)	1.61 ↓ (2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Alianza Atlético
15.6%

Draw
25.7%

Universitario de Deportes
58.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25%

28.2%

46.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24%

27%

48.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Atlético has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alianza Atlético's form might have worsened.

Universitario de Deportes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Universitario de Deportes's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Atlético than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alianza Atlético, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Universitario de Deportes than the current prediction. (-9.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Universitario de Deportes, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	8.3%	75%

Alianza Atlético - Universitario de Deportes Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Alianza Atlético will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Uni de Deportes will win (votes: 9 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Uni de Deportes: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Uni de Deportes (2.00) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Universitario de Deportes will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Alianza Atlético (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Uni de Deportes (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Melian D. (G) 3. Vasquez C. 4. Villegas J. C. 13. Benincasa H. 24. Gordillo A. 16. Fernandez S. 20. Perez J. 7. Castro R. 15. Lupu H. 11. Larios Saavedra G. A. 29. Graneros A.	1. Britos S. (G) 4. Santamaria A. 3. Riveros W. 5. Di Benedetto M. 24. Polo A. 16. Perez M. 23. Murrugarra J. 17. Concha J. 33. Inga C. 19. Flores E. 20. Valera A.
Substitutes
2. Cossio A. 27. Diaz R. 33. Flores F. 8. Illanes F. 23. Olmedo L. 19. Perez M. 21. Perleche E. 95. Prieto D. (G) 40. Quinones Goicochea J. J.	27. Carabali J. 6. Castillo J. 29. Corzo A. 8. Costa G. 34. Cruz E. 15. Diego Churin 11. Rivera J. 25. Vargas M. (G) 7. Velez J.
Coaches
Ameli G.	Fossati J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
65', Murrugarra J. ↓, Castillo J. ↑,
65', Inga C. ↓, Carabali J. ↑,
65', Flores E. ↓, Rivera J. ↑,
67', Vasquez C. ↓, Olmedo L. ↑,
67', Perez J. ↓, Perleche E. ↑,
69', Castro R. 🟨,
69', 0 - 1, Perez M. ⚽,
73', Perez M. 🟨,
74', Perez M. ↓, Velez J. ↑,
76', Fernandez S. 🟨,
81', Lupu H. ↓, Flores F. ↑,
82', Larios Saavedra G. A. ↓, Perez M. ↑,
87', 0 - 2, Rivera J. ⚽, Concha J. (A),
88', Gordillo A. ↓, Cossio A. ↑,
88', Valera A. ↓, Diego Churin ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alianza Atlético won 2.

Alianza Atlético is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Uni de Deportes is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Alianza Atlético may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Uni de Deportes is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Uni de Deportes: Costa G. (Inactive)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Alianza Atlético won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 19:39. (average 1:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Alianza Atlético won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 12:19. (average 1.3:2.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza Atlético
Peruvian Liga 1
26.09.25	ADT Tarma - Alianza Atlético	1:0 ✺
22.09.25	Alianza Atlético - Ayacucho	3:0 ✺
17.09.25	Sporting Cristal - Alianza Atlético	0:0 ✺
13.09.25	Alianza Atlético - Juan Pablo II College	0:1 ✺
17.08.25	Cusco - Alianza Atlético	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LWTLL
- Universitario de Deportes
Peruvian Liga 1
27.09.25	Universitario de Deportes - Cusco	3:2 ✺
20.09.25	Cajamarca - Universitario de Deportes	1:2 ✺
14.09.25	FBC Melgar - Universitario de Deportes	1:2 ✺
24.08.25	Universitario de Deportes - Alianza Lima	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
21.08.25	Palmeiras - Universitario de Deportes	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.8 WWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
11.05.25	Universitario de Deportes - Alianza Atlético	0:1
15.09.24	Alianza Atlético - Universitario de Deportes	0:3
05.04.24	Universitario de Deportes - Alianza Atlético	1:0
03.07.23	Universitario de Deportes - Alianza Atlético	2:0
14.05.23	Alianza Atlético - Universitario de Deportes	3:1
30.09.22	Alianza Atlético - Universitario de Deportes	2:2
07.05.22	Universitario de Deportes - Alianza Atlético	3:1

Upcoming Matches