Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA LIBERTADORES - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 5

Date: 6 June 2023, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Alejandro Villanueva (Lima)

Referee: Tello F. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Brazil	ESPN
Germany	Sport 1+
Portugal	Sport TV2


	Alianza Lima		Atlético Mineiro

	1	X	2
	6	3.8	1.6	Watch
	5.5	3.7	1.61
	5.75	3.8	1.62
	5.93	3.88	1.64
	5.5	3.5	1.53
	5.7	3.9	1.6	Watch
	5.6	3.75	1.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.71 ↑ (4.43)	3.76 ↑ (3.61)	1.6 ↓ (1.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alianza Lima
16.4%

Draw
24.9%

Atlético Mineiro
58.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.3%

26.1%

52.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.1%

25.9%

53.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Lima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Atlético Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atlético Mineiro's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Atlético Mineiro, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.5%	7.7%	80.8%

Alianza Lima - Atlético Mineiro Predictions

Users Predictions: Atlético Mineiro will win (21 of 26 users predict this - 80.77%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.62% – 95.92%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Campos A. (G) 3. Vilchez Y. 5. Zambrano C. 2. Garcia S. 13. Lagos R. 16. Castillo J. 21. Ballon J. 22. Rodriguez A. 10. Cueva C. 11. Reyna B. 9. Barcos H.	22. Everson (G) 3. Bruno Fuchs 40. Nathan Silva 34. Jemerson 44. Rubens 21. Battaglia R. 15. Zaracho M. 9. Pavon C. 10. Paulinho 20. Hyoran 7. Hulk
Substitutes
4. Amasifuen N. 28. Chavez E. 17. Concha J. 24. del Castillo J. 31. Espinoza Gomes I. (G) 7. Lavandeira Hernandez P. 6. Miguez P. 26. Montoya J. 19. Sabbag P. 32. Saravia F. (G) 35. Velasquez J. 23. Zanelatto F.	42. Cadu 6. Dodo 8. Edenilson 11. Eduardo Vargas 13. Guilherme Arana 17. Igor Gomes 28. Lemos M. 31. Matheus Mendes (G) 5. Otavio 49. Patrick 26. Renzo Saravia 4. Rever
Coaches
Salas G.	Coudet E.

Preview

Recent matches Alianza Lima is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Atlético MG is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Alianza Lima could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Atlético MG is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Alianza Lima won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza Lima
Peruvian Liga 1
02.06.23	ADT Tarma - Alianza Lima	2:1 ✺
28.05.23	Alianza Lima - Escuela Municipal Binacional	6:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
23.05.23	Alianza Lima - Libertad Asuncion	1:2 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
19.05.23	FBC Melgar - Alianza Lima	2:1 ✺
15.05.23	Alianza Lima - Deportivo Municipal	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LWLLW
- Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A
03.06.23	Cruzeiro - Atlético Mineiro	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
31.05.23	Corinthians - Atlético Mineiro	3:0 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.05.23	Atlético Mineiro - Palmeiras	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
23.05.23	Atlético Mineiro - Athletico Paranaense	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
20.05.23	Coritiba - Atlético Mineiro	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
03.05.23	Atlético Mineiro - Alianza Lima	2:0

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