Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 8 May 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Alejandro Villanueva (Lima)

Referee: Valenzuela J. (Ven)


	Alianza Lima		Cerro Porteño

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.2	3.2	Watch
	2.37	3	3.1
	2.4	3.1	3.1	Watch
	2.45	3.11	3.25
	2.45	3.11	3.25
	2.3	3.1	2.9	Watch
	2.4	3.2	3.12	Watch
	2.34	3.1	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↑ (2.19)	3.12 ↓ (3.27)	3.12 ↓ (3.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alianza Lima
39.5%

Draw
30.3%

Cerro Porteño
30.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.5%

28.5%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.1%

28.2%

29.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Lima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Cerro Porteño has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerro Porteño than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.3%	33.3%	8.3%

Alianza Lima - Cerro Porteño Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Alianza Lima will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Cerro Porteño will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alianza Lima: 35.2% – 92%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Campos A. (G) 29. Ramos J. 5. Zambrano C. 6. Garces R. 10. Rodriguez S. 26. Serna K. 27. Cabellos C. 17. Neira C. 2. Freytes J. 9. Barcos H. (C) 18. De Santis J.	13. Jean (G) 2. Benitez A. 24. Baez C. 4. Eduardo Brock 21. Arzamendia S. 8. Carrizo F. 33. Peralta F. 26. Piris R. 10. Dominguez C. 11. Iturbe J. 19. Diego Churin (C)
Substitutes
22. Arregui A. 15. Castillo J. 8. Costa G. 11. D'Arrigo J. 12. De la Cruz A. (G) 20. Fuentes A. 24. Guzman V. 25. Huaman M. 14. Moyano A. 32. Saravia F. (G) 31. Vilchez Y. 7. Zanelatto F.	17. Aguayo G. 34. Benitez M. 32. Cabanas V. 6. Carrascal R. 35. De Jesus R. 40. Fernandez F. 1. Martin A. (G) 5. Morel J. 23. Oviedo A. 39. Portillo Avalos T. G. 27. Riveros L. 20. Viera W.
Coaches
Restrepo A.	Jimenez M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
26', 0 - 1, Iturbe J. ⚽, Peralta F. (A),
35', Ramos J. 🟨,
45+2', Peralta F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Neira C. ↓, Costa G. ↑,
46', Carrizo F. ↓, Morel J. ↑,
55', Ramos J. ↓, Arregui A. ↑,
55', Cabellos C. ↓, Zanelatto F. ↑,
59', Iturbe J. ↓, Viera W. ↑,
67', Dominguez C. ↓, Fernandez F. ↑,
67', Diego Churin ↓, Oviedo A. ↑,
76', Baez C. 🟨,
76', De Santis J. ↓, D'Arrigo J. ↑,
80', 1 - 1, Barcos H. ⚽, Rodriguez S. (A),
86', Zanelatto F. 🟨,
88', Peralta F. ↓, Carrascal R. ↑,
90', Fernandez F. 🟨,

Preview

Alianza Lima is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Cerro Porteño in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Cerro Porteño could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Alianza Lima won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza Lima
Peruvian Liga 1
03.05.24	Alianza Lima - Cajamarca	1:0 ✺
28.04.24	FBC Melgar - Alianza Lima	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
23.04.24	Colo-Colo - Alianza Lima	0:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
18.04.24	Alianza Lima - Sport Boys	3:0 ✺
14.04.24	Alianza Lima - Atlético Grau	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WLTWW
- Cerro Porteño
Paraguayan Primera Division
03.05.24	Libertad Asuncion - Cerro Porteño	1:3 ✺
28.04.24	Cerro Porteño - General Caballero JLM	4:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
25.04.24	Cerro Porteño - Fluminense	0:0 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
19.04.24	2 de Mayo - Cerro Porteño	0:2 ✺
14.04.24	Cerro Porteño - Sportivo Ameliano	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
10.04.24	Cerro Porteño - Alianza Lima	1:0

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