Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Qualification - Final

Date: 11 March 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Alejandro Villanueva (Lima)

Referee: Perez Y. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 2, Mi Telefe App, Mi Telefe, Telefe
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Chile	Disney+, ESPN Premium
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Georgia	Silk Universal
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV1
South-america	ESPN South
Spain	beIN Sports
Turkey	Exxen, S Sport 2, S Sport+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
World	Disney+, Pluto TV


	Alianza Lima		Deportes Iquique

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.8	6.25	Watch
	1.58	3.8	5.5
	1.55	4.2	5.5	Watch
	1.53	4.13	6.08
	1.56	4.12	6.03	Watch
	1.55	3.8	5.8	Watch
	1.57	4.11	6.16	Watch
	1.55	4.2	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↓ (1.71)	4.02 ↑ (3.52)	5.85 ↑ (4.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Network on TV: beIN SPORTS

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Current Win Probability

Alianza Lima
60.5%

Draw
23.4%

Deportes Iquique
16.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.8%

26.2%

20%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.7%

25.3%

19.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Lima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alianza Lima's performance.

Deportes Iquique has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Iquique than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	11.1%	0%

Alianza Lima - Deportes Iquique Predictions

Users Predictions: Alianza Lima will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Viscarra G. (G) 22. Enrique G. 5. Zambrano C. 6. Garces R. 21. Trauco M. 8. Castillo E. 4. Noriega E. 20. Lavandeira Hernandez P. 27. Quevedo K. 9. Barcos H. (C) 19. Cantero A.	22. Requena L. (G) 20. Orellana D. 30. Blazquez M. 15. Rodriguez C. 18. Salinas Flores H. (C) 16. Soto B. 21. Fernandez C. D. N. 23. Hoyos E. 17. Gonzalez C. 8. Pino S. 10. Puch E.
Substitutes
28. Aguirre G. 1. Campos A. (G) 15. Castillo J. 10. Ceppelini P. 11. D'Arrigo J. 37. Delgado J. 7. Gaibor F. 14. Huaman M. 13. Lagos R. 34. Paolo Guerrero 16. Succar M. 35. Velasquez J.	24. Barrera B. 14. Davila Carvajal M. 3. Ferreyra T. 5. Fuentes C. 27. Henriquez A. 9. Javier Parraguez 13. Jorquera M. 11. Ramos A. 1. Reyes M. (G) 4. Rojas D. 29. Valenzuela R.
Coaches
Gorosito N.	Ramirez M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
37', Barcos H. ↓, Paolo Guerrero ↑,
41', Blazquez M. 🟨,
42', 1 - 0, Quevedo K. ⚽,
43', Quevedo K. 🟨,
45+8', Soto B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
50', Gonzalez C. 🟨,
61', Gonzalez C. ↓, Ramos A. ↑,
61', Fernandez C. D. N. ↓, Fuentes C. ↑,
61', Soto B. ↓, Davila Carvajal M. ↑,
65', Rodriguez C. 🟨,
74', Cantero A. ↓, Gaibor F. ↑,
74', Pino S. ↓, Javier Parraguez ↑,
75', Salinas Flores H. ↓, Ferreyra T. ↑,
76', Enrique G. 🟨,
79', Enrique G. ↓, Huaman M. ↑,
80', Quevedo K. ↓, Lagos R. ↑,
90', 1 - 1, Davila Carvajal M. ⚽,
90+9', Ferreyra T. 🟨,
90+14', Paolo Guerrero 🟨,
90+14', 🟨,
90+14', Zambrano C. 🟨,
90+14', Garces R. 🟨,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 2-1.

Alianza Lima in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Deportes Iquique is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Alianza Lima could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Alianza Lima is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Alianza Lima to win the game is with odds 1.58.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Alianza Lima won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza Lima
Peruvian Liga 1
07.03.25	Alianza Lima - Ayacucho	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
04.03.25	Deportes Iquique - Alianza Lima	1:2 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
01.03.25	Sporting Cristal - Alianza Lima	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
25.02.25	Boca Juniors - Alianza Lima	2:2 penalties ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
21.02.25	Alianza Lima - Juan Pablo II College	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 28.5 WWWWW
- Deportes Iquique
Chilean Primera Division
08.03.25	Deportes Iquique - Palestino	1:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
04.03.25	Deportes Iquique - Alianza Lima	1:2 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
01.03.25	Universidad Católica - Deportes Iquique	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
25.02.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Deportes Iquique	2:2 penalties ✺
Chilean Primera Division
21.02.25	Audax Italiano - Deportes Iquique	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
04.03.25	Deportes Iquique - Alianza Lima	1:2

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