The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Alianza Panama 41.2%
Draw 29.8%
Independiente de la Chorrera 29%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
36.1%
29.4%
34.5%
Our Initial ML Estimation
35.5%
28.9%
35.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Alianza Panama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alianza Panama's performance.
Independiente de la Chorrera has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Independiente de la Chorrera might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Panama than the current prediction. (-5.7%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alianza Panama that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente de la Chorrera than the current prediction. (+6.1%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Independiente de la Chorrera could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Alianza Panama - Independiente de la Chorrera Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
12. Gonzalez J. (G) 23. Marquinez J. 5. Campos O. 8. Rangel G. 13. Mendoza A. 16. Mitre R. 17. Asprilla J. 18. Perdomo R. 22. Rodriguez M. (C) 29. Stewart A. 9. Walters B.
83. Leon G. (G) 52. Cifuentes A. 13. Negrete G. (C) 74. Reyes R. 15. Giron J. 18. Giron E. 20. McKenzie A. 9. Tejada L. 24. Obando J. 43. Gomez V. 28. Ruiz M.
Substitutes
51. Carvajal D. 15. Galvez A. 26. Garces J. 2. Landazuri F. 1. Lopez Giraldo J. (G) 6. Marengo J. 3. Ortega Y. 40. Rodriguez C. 21. Tello E. 19. Vargas D.
7. Altamirano A. 16. Berrocal O. 25. Contreras D. 4. Fori D. 10. Gonzalez J. 36. Guerra H. 27. Morales A. 1. Rodriguez A. (G) 11. Valverde A. 22. Waterman B.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
23', Reyes R. 🟨,
28', Mendoza A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
60', Rangel G. 🟨,
61', Rangel G. ↓, Marengo J. ↑,
66', 1 - 0, Walters B. ⚽,
72', Giron J. ↓, Contreras D. ↑,
72', Ruiz M. ↓, Valverde A. ↑,
72', Tejada L. 🟥,
72', Rodriguez M. 🟨,
72', Marquinez J. 🟨,
76', 2 - 0, Marengo J. ⚽,
79', Obando J. ↓, Altamirano A. ↑,
79', McKenzie A. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
83', Rodriguez M. ↓, Ortega Y. ↑,
83', Walters B. ↓, Rodriguez C. ↑,
85', Reyes R. ↓, Berrocal O. ↑,
90+2', Stewart A. ↓, Galvez A. ↑,
90+2', Mitre R. ↓, Carvajal D. ↑,
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alianza won 3.
Recent results have been tough for Alianza (last 5 matches: 0 wins).
Performances by Independiente have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
In the last 13 head-to-head meetings, Alianza has recorded 5 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 17:17 (averaging 1.3:1.3 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Alianza against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with 8:7 goals (averaging 1.1:1 per game).
Last Results with these Odds
Alianza Panama - the odds 2.48 are the expected chance of winning is 36.14%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.
Mexico
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Gonzalez J. (G) 
Marquinez J. 
Campos O. 
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