Match Info

SPAIN: LaLiga - Round 32

Date: 21 April 2024, Sunday

Location: Power Horse Stadium (Almería)

Referee: Ortiz M. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Argentina	DirecTV
Australia	Optus Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 1
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu
France	beIN Sports Max
Greece	Nova Sports
Serbia	Arena Sport
United-kingdom	Viaplay


	Almería		Villarreal

	1	X	2
	3.4	4	1.95	Watch
	3.4	3.8	2
	3.5	3.75	2.05	Watch
	3.54	3.96	2.02
	3.54	3.96	2.03
	3.4	3.75	2
	3.65	3.93	2.06	Watch
	3.45	4.05	1.99
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.49 ↑ (2.87)	3.9 ↑ (3.65)	2.01 ↓ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Almería
27.6%

Draw
24.6%

Villarreal
47.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.2%

26.1%

40.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.1%

26%

40.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Almería has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Almería's form might have worsened.

Villarreal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Villarreal's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almería than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Almería, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Villarreal than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Villarreal, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.6%	21.9%	62.5%

Almería - Villarreal Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Almería will win (votes: 5 - 16.1%). Villarreal will win (votes: 20 - 64.5%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 19.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Villarreal: 47.7% – 81.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Maximiano L. (G) 18. Pubill M. 22. Montes C. 21. Chumi 24. Langa B. 5. Robertone L. (C) 6. Lopy D. 12. Leo Baptistao 8. Viera J. 10. Embarba A. 15. Lozano C.	13. Jorgensen F. (G) 17. Kiko Femenia 23. Mandi A. 2. Mosquera Y. 24. Pedraza A. 27. Akhomach I. 10. Parejo D. 19. Coquelin F. 16. Baena A. 7. Moreno G. (C) 11. Sorloth A.
Substitutes
19. Arribas S. 4. Baba I. 20. Centelles A. 23. Kone I. 1. Marino D. (G) 13. Martinez F. (G) 29. Milovanovic M. 26. Pena M. 17. Pozo A. 7. Ramazani L. 38. Romero L. 27. Sanz P.	31. Alvarez I. (G) 6. Capoue E. 5. Cuenca J. 9. Guedes G. 15. Morales J. L. 18. Moreno A. 1. Reina P. (G) 20. Terrats R. 25. Traore B. 14. Trigueros M.
Coaches
Mel P.	Marcelino G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
25', 0 - 1, Akhomach I. ⚽, Pedraza A. (A),
30', 1 - 1, Lozano C. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
50', Akhomach I. 🟨,
59', Coquelin F. 🟨,
60', Parejo D. ↓, Guedes G. ↑,
61', Pedraza A. ↓, Moreno A. ↑,
62', Jorgensen F. 🟨,
69', Lopy D. ↓, Ramazani L. ↑,
69', Lozano C. ↓, Pena M. ↑,
72', Moreno G. ↓, Traore B. ↑,
72', Mandi A. ↓, Cuenca J. ↑,
73', Viera J. 🟨,
76', Viera J. ↓, Arribas S. ↑,
79', Akhomach I. ↓, Morales J. L. ↑,
80', Ramazani L. 🟨,
85', Embarba A. ↓, Romero L. ↑,
87', Ramazani L. 🟨,
88', Kiko Femenia 🟨,
90+2', 1 - 2, Sorloth A. ⚽, Moreno A. (A),

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2 and 9).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Almería won 0.

Recent matches Almería is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Villarreal is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Villarreal will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Almería won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 9-26.

Including matches at home between the teams Almería won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Almería
Spanish LaLiga
14.04.24	Real Sociedad - Almería	2:2 ✺
30.03.24	Almería - Osasuna	0:3 ✺
17.03.24	Las Palmas - Almería	0:1 ✺
11.03.24	Almería - Sevilla	2:2 ✺
01.03.24	Celta de Vigo - Almería	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.7 TLWTL
- Villarreal CF
Spanish LaLiga
14.04.24	Athletic Bilbao - Villarreal	1:1 ✺
01.04.24	Villarreal - Atlético Madrid	1:2 ✺
17.03.24	Villarreal - Valencia	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
14.03.24	Villarreal - Olympique Marseille	3:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
10.03.24	Betis - Villarreal	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.1 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
17.09.23	Villarreal - Almería	2:1
04.03.23	Almería - Villarreal	0:2
23.10.22	Villarreal - Almería	2:1
Spanish Copa del Rey
05.12.18	Villarreal - Almería	8:0
01.11.18	Almería - Villarreal	3:3
Spanish LaLiga
15.03.15	Almería - Villarreal	0:0
19.10.14	Villarreal - Almería	2:0

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