Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA LEAGUE - PLAY OFFS - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 14 March 2024, Thursday

Location: Estadio de la Ceramica (Villarreal)

Referee: Kovacs I. (Rou)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Finland	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV3
Serbia	Arena Sport
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Villarreal		Olympique Marseille

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.8	3
	2.25	3.6	2.95
	2.28	3.85	2.95	Watch
	2.25	3.74	3.1
	2.26	3.74	3.08
	2.2	3.7	3
	2.31	3.84	3.1
	2.27	3.8	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↑ (2.19)	3.76 ↓ (3.97)	3.03 ↓ (3.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Villarreal
42.7%

Draw
25.6%

Olympique Marseille
31.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.3%

24.5%

31.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

24.5%

31.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Villarreal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Olympique Marseille has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Villarreal than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.2%	22.4%	19.4%

Villarreal - Olympique Marseille Predictions

Users Predictions: 67 users predict this event. Villarreal will win (votes: 39 - 58.2%). Marseille will win (votes: 13 - 19.4%). It will Tie (votes: 15 - 22.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Villarreal: 46.4% – 70%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Jorgensen F. (G) 17. Kiko 12. Bailly E. 23. Mandi A. 5. Cuenca J. 19. Coquelin F. 6. Capoue E. 10. Parejo D. 9. Guedes G. 7. Moreno G. (C) 11. Sorloth A.	16. Lopez P. (G) 18. Meite A. 99. Mbemba Ch. 5. Balerdi L. 3. Merlin Q. 7. Clauss J. 19. Kondogbia G. (C) 8. Ounahi A. 27. Veretout J. 29. Ndiaye I. 23. Sarr I.
Substitutes
27. Akhomach I. 26. Altimira A. 31. Alvarez I. (G) 16. Baena A. 4. Comesana S. 15. Morales J. L. 2. Mosquera Y. 14. Trigueros M.	10. Aubameyang P. 36. Blanco R. (G) 20. Correa J. 11. Harit A. 44. Luis Henrique 14. Moumbagna F. 37. Soglo E. 39. Tunkadi A.
Coaches
Marcelino G.	Gasset J.

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-4.

Villarreal is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Marseille is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recently Marseille have a series of home games.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

There will not play in Villarreal: Albiol R. (Muscle Injury) Foyth J. (Knee Injury) Pedraza A. (Ankle Injury) Pino Y. (Knee Injury) Suarez D. (Muscle Injury) Terrats R. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Marseille: Gigot S. (Shoulder Injury) Murillo M. (Muscle Injury) Nadir B. (Knee Injury) Ngapandouetnbu S. (Injury) Rongier V. (Knee Injury) Ruiz P. (Injury)

Last 3 head-to-head matches Villarreal won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Villarreal CF
Spanish LaLiga
10.03.24	Betis - Villarreal	2:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
07.03.24	Olympique Marseille - Villarreal	4:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
03.03.24	Villarreal - Granada	5:1 ✺
23.02.24	Real Sociedad - Villarreal	1:3 ✺
16.02.24	Villarreal - Getafe	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.4 WLWWT
- Olympique Marseille
French Ligue 1
10.03.24	Olympique Marseille - Nantes	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
07.03.24	Olympique Marseille - Villarreal	4:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
02.03.24	Clermont - Olympique Marseille	1:5 ✺
25.02.24	Olympique Marseille - Montpellier	4:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
22.02.24	Olympique Marseille - Shakhtar Donetsk	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
07.03.24	Olympique Marseille - Villarreal	4:0
Club Friendly
31.07.21	Olympique Marseille - Villarreal	2:1
21.07.18	Olympique Marseille - Villarreal	1:1

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