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Athletic Bilbao - Villarreal: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide

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Match Info

  • LaLiga - Round 31
  • Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday
  • Location: Estadio San Mamés (Bilbao)
  • Referee: Guzman J. (Esp)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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    Athletic Bilbao Villarreal
    Athletic Bilbao Villarreal
    1 X 2
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    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.06 ↓
    (2.34)    		 3.46 ↓
    (3.53)    		 3.66 ↑
    (2.86)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

    • The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Athletic Bilbao
    46.4%    		Draw
    27.5%    		Villarreal
    26.1%

    Initial Probability

    (when we started the analysis)
    40.4% 26.7% 32.9%

    Our Initial ML Estimation

    42.3% 28% 31.4%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Athletic Bilbao has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Athletic Bilbao's performance.
  • Villarreal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Villarreal might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (-4.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Villarreal than the current prediction. (+5.3%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Villarreal could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    61.1% 27.8% 11.1%

    Athletic Bilbao - Villarreal Predictions

  • Users Predictions: 36 users predict this event. Athletic will win (votes: 22 - 61.1%). Villarreal will win (votes: 4 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 27.8%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Athletic: 45.2% – 77%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.5 - Villarreal (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.25 - Athletic (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 2 - 50%). Villarreal (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
      1. SpainSimon U. (G)
    15. SpainLekue I.
      3. SpainVivian D.
    14. SpainLaporte A.
    17. SpainBerchiche Y.
    18. SpainJauregizar M.
    16. SpainRuiz de Galarreta I.
      9. GhanaWilliams I. (C)
      8. SpainSancet O.
    10. SpainWilliams N.
    11. SpainGuruzeta G.
    		  1. BrazilLuiz Junior (G)
    15. UruguayMourino S.
      6. SpainNavarro P.
    12. PortugalVeiga R.
    23. SpainCardona S.
    17. CanadaBuchanan T.
    14. SpainComesana S.
    18. SenegalGueye P.
    11. SpainGonzalez A.
      7. SpainMoreno G. (C)
    21. CanadaOluwaseyi T.
    Substitutes
      5. SpainAlvarez Y.
      7. SpainBerenguer A.
    19. SpainBoiro A.
    20. SpainGomez U.
      2. SpainGorosabel A.
    25. SpainIzeta
    23. SpainNavarro R.
    27. MexicoPadilla A. (G)
      4. SpainParedes A.
    30. SpainRego A.
    22. SpainSerrano N.
      6. SpainVesga M.
    		38. SenegalDiatta A.
      3. USAFreeman A.
      5. FranceKambwala W.
      4. SpainMarin R.
      9. GeorgiaMikautadze G.
    20. SpainMoleiro A.
    10. SpainParejo D.
    24. SpainPedraza A.
    19. IvoryPepe N.
    22. SpainPerez A.
    25. SpainTenas A. (G)
    Coaches
         SpainValverde E.
    		     SpainMarcelino G.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (0 - 2)
    • 19', Navarro P. 🟨,
    • 26', 0 - 1, Cardona S. ⚽, Oluwaseyi T. (A),
    • 45+5', 0 - 2, Gonzalez A. ⚽,
    • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
    • 46', Lekue I. ↓, Gorosabel A. ↑,
    • 46', Navarro P. ↓, Marin R. ↑,
    • 66', Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↓, Rego A. ↑,
    • 66', Sancet O. ↓, Berenguer A. ↑,
    • 66', Williams N. ↓, Navarro R. ↑,
    • 68', Gonzalez A. ↓, Pepe N. ↑,
    • 69', Oluwaseyi T. ↓, Mikautadze G. ↑,
    • 75', Comesana S. 🟨,
    • 78', Buchanan T. 🟨,
    • 78', Buchanan T. ↓, Moleiro A. ↑,
    • 82', Williams I. ↓, Serrano N. ↑,
    • 82', Gueye P. ↓, Parejo D. ↑,
    • 84', 1 - 2, Guruzeta G. ⚽, Berchiche Y. (A),
    • 90+1', Gorosabel A. 🟨,
    • 90+1', Guruzeta G. 🟨,

    Preview

  • Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 11 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 2.
  • Recent form of Athletic has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
  • Villarreal's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
  • Athletic might have a minor edge in this game.
  • There will not play in Athletic: Areso J. (Inactive) Egiluz U. (Inactive) Prados Diaz B. (Knee Injury) Sannadi M. (Inactive)
  • There will not play in Villarreal: Cabanes P. (Knee Injury) Costa L. (Knee Injury) Foyth J. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Partey T. (Muscle Injury)
  • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 7 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:22. (average 1.1:1.1).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Athletic won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:7. (average 1:0.7).

    • Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now
    Ath Bilbao: 0.47% Villarreal: 0.44%

    Standings

    PlWDLDiffPts
    9Villarreal722313:1218
    10Ath Bilbao62227:618

    Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Athletic Bilbao
    Spanish LaLiga
    05.04.26 Getafe - Athletic Bilbao 2:0 ✺
    22.03.26 Athletic Bilbao - Betis 2:1 ✺
    14.03.26 Girona - Athletic Bilbao 3:0 ✺
    07.03.26 Athletic Bilbao - Barcelona 0:1 ✺
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    04.03.26 Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao 1:0 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3
    LWLLL
    - Villarreal CF
    Spanish LaLiga
    06.04.26 Girona - Villarreal 1:0 ✺
    20.03.26 Villarreal - Real Sociedad 3:1 ✺
    13.03.26 Deportivo Alavés - Villarreal 1:1 ✺
    08.03.26 Villarreal - Elche 2:1 ✺
    28.02.26 Barcelona - Villarreal 4:1 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5
    LWTWL
    Latest Head to Head
    Spanish LaLiga
    27.09.25 Villarreal - Athletic Bilbao 1:0
    06.04.25 Villarreal - Athletic Bilbao 0:0
    08.12.24 Athletic Bilbao - Villarreal 2:0
    14.04.24 Athletic Bilbao - Villarreal 1:1
    05.11.23 Villarreal - Athletic Bilbao 2:3
    13.05.23 Villarreal - Athletic Bilbao 5:1
    30.10.22 Athletic Bilbao - Villarreal 1:0
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Athletic Bilbao
    Spanish LaLiga
    10.10.26 Rayo Vallecano - Athletic Bilbao ✺
    - Villarreal CF
    UEFA Champions League
    13.10.26 Villarreal - Napoli ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    10.10.26 Real Madrid - Villarreal ✺

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