Match Info

BRAZIL: SERIE A - ROUND 27

Date: 18 October 2023, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	América Mineiro		Botafogo RJ

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.2	2.63	Watch
	2.9	3.3	2.45	Watch
	2.92	3.25	2.65
	3.2	3.3	2.15
	2.83	3.34	2.45	Watch
	2.95	3.1	2.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.93 ↓ (3.3)	3.25 ↓ (3.3)	2.47 ↑ (2.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

América Mineiro
32.3%

Draw
29.2%

Botafogo RJ
38.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.5%

43%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.3%

27.7%

41.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

América Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Botafogo RJ has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.6%	5.9%	76.5%

América Mineiro - Botafogo RJ Predictions

Users Predictions: 34 users predict this event. América MG will win (votes: 6 - 17.6%). Botafogo will win (votes: 26 - 76.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 5.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Botafogo: 62.2% – 90.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matheus Cavichioli (G) 45. Ricardo Silva 3. Iago Maidana 22. Danilo Avelar 36. Mateus Henrique 8. Juninho (C) 5. Emmanuel Martinez 10. Martin Benitez 30. Nicolas Vichiatto 11. Felipe Azevedo 17. Gonzalo Mastriani	12. Lucas Perri (G) 24. Di Placido L. 34. Adryelson 15. Victor Cuesta (C) 16. Hugo 17. Marlon Freitas 14. Gabriel Pires 33. Carlos Eduardo 37. Junior Santos 9. Tiquinho Soares 7. Victor Sa
Substitutes
93. Aguerre W. (G) 16. Ale 28. Cascardo Lemos B. 80. Cazares 18. Cesar J. 33. Eder Ferreira 37. Everaldo 6. Marlon 23. Mendez J. 79. Renato Kayzer 75. Rodriguinho 9. Wellington Paulista	23. Bastos 19. Costa D. 5. Danilo 43. David 1. Gatito Fernandez (G) 39. Janderson 57. JP Galvao 11. Luis Henrique 94. Philipe Sampaio 4. Ponte M. 75. Rai 10. Segovia M.
Coaches
Bustos F.	Lucio F.

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches América MG won 2.

Two teams are in a poor body shape now.

Botafogo will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in América MG: Aloisio (Injury)

There will not play in Botafogo: Patrick de Paula (Knee Injury) Rafael (Knee Injury)

Last 11 head-to-head matches América MG won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 10-9.

Including matches at home between the teams América MG won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- América Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A
08.10.23	Fortaleza - América Mineiro	3:2 ✺
01.10.23	Cruzeiro - América Mineiro	1:1 ✺
25.09.23	América Mineiro - Vasco da Gama	0:1 ✺
19.09.23	América Mineiro - Red Bull Bragantino	0:2 ✺
15.09.23	Cuiabá - América Mineiro	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LTLLT
- Botafogo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
08.10.23	Fluminense - Botafogo RJ	0:2 ✺
02.10.23	Botafogo RJ - Goiás	1:1 ✺
22.09.23	Corinthians - Botafogo RJ	1:0 ✺
16.09.23	Atlético Mineiro - Botafogo RJ	1:0 ✺
02.09.23	Botafogo RJ - Flamengo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
28.05.23	Botafogo RJ - América Mineiro	2:0
11.09.22	Botafogo RJ - América Mineiro	0:0
Copa do Brasil
14.07.22	Botafogo RJ - América Mineiro	0:2
30.06.22	América Mineiro - Botafogo RJ	3:0
Brazilian Serie A
21.05.22	América Mineiro - Botafogo RJ	1:1
16.09.18	Botafogo RJ - América Mineiro	1:0
20.05.18	América Mineiro - Botafogo RJ	1:0

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