Match Info

BRAZIL: SERIE A - ROUND 15

Date: 25 September 2023, Monday

Location: Estádio Raimundo Sampaio (Belo Horizonte)


	América Mineiro		Vasco da Gama

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.3	2.5	Watch
	2.7	3.2	2.5	Watch
	2.83	3.36	2.66
	2.77	3.3	2.51	Watch
	2.8	3.25	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.78 ↑ (2.05)	3.28 ↑ (3)	2.53 ↓ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

América Mineiro
34%

Draw
28.8%

Vasco da Gama
37.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.7%

29.9%

26.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.5%

28.7%

25.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

América Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that América Mineiro's form might have worsened.

Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Vasco da Gama's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (+11.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for América Mineiro, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-11.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Vasco da Gama, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	19%	66.7%

América Mineiro - Vasco da Gama Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. América MG will win (votes: 3 - 14.3%). Vasco will win (votes: 14 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 19%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vasco: 46.5% – 86.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matheus Cavichioli (G) 26. Burgos E. 3. Iago Maidana 45. Ricardo Silva 30. Nicolas Vichiatto 8. Juninho (C) 28. Cascardo Lemos B. 5. Emmanuel Martinez 65. Rodrigo Varanda 17. Gonzalo Mastriani 11. Felipe Azevedo	1. Leo Jardim (G) 2. Puma Rodriguez 17. Medel G. (C) 3. Leo 6. Lucas Piton 18. Paulinho 23. Ze Gabriel 21. Praxedes 31. Rossi 99. Vegetti P. 10. Payet D.
Substitutes
93. Aguerre W. (G) 80. Cazares 18. Cesar J. 20. Daniel Borges 33. Eder Ferreira 6. Marlon 10. Martin Benitez 23. Mendez J. 87. Mikael 29. Pedrinho 75. Rodriguinho 9. Wellington Paulista	7. Alex Teixeira 9. Ferreira S. 15. Figueiredo 11. Gabriel Pec 97. Ivan (G) 8. Jair 4. Maicon 25. Marlon Gomes 85. Mateus Carvalho 96. Paulo Henrique 70. Serginho 44. Ze Vitor
Coaches
Bustos F.	Diaz R.

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

Recent matches América MG is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Vasco is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Vasco could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently América MG have a series of guest games.

América MG will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 4 head-to-head matches América MG won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6-9.

Including matches at home between the teams América MG won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- América Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A
19.09.23	América Mineiro - Red Bull Bragantino	0:2 ✺
15.09.23	Cuiabá - América Mineiro	2:2 ✺
03.09.23	América Mineiro - Santos	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
31.08.23	Fortaleza - América Mineiro	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
27.08.23	América Mineiro - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 LTWLW
- Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Serie A
21.09.23	Vasco da Gama - Coritiba	5:1 ✺
16.09.23	Vasco da Gama - Fluminense	4:2 ✺
03.09.23	Bahia - Vasco da Gama	1:1 ✺
27.08.23	Palmeiras - Vasco da Gama	1:0 ✺
20.08.23	Vasco da Gama - Atlético Mineiro	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
06.09.18	América Mineiro - Vasco da Gama	2:1
05.05.18	Vasco da Gama - América Mineiro	4:1
Brazilian Serie B
06.09.14	América Mineiro - Vasco da Gama	2:3
19.04.14	Vasco da Gama - América Mineiro	1:1

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