Match Info

Serie B - Round 30

Date: 28 September 2026, Monday

Location: Mineirão (Belo Horizonte)

Referee: Casagrande L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN


	América Mineiro		Juventude

	1	X	2
	4.20	3.40	1.81	Watch
	4.10	3.25	1.83
	4.00	3.30	1.92	Watch
	4.59	3.35	1.93
	4.27	3.43	1.86
	4.50	3.25	1.89
	4.22	3.22	1.88	Watch
	4.20	3.30	1.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.26 ↑ (3.2)	3.31 ↑ (3.15)	1.87 ↓ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

América Mineiro
21.9%

Draw
28.2%

Juventude
49.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.2%

29.7%

41%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28%

28.5%

42.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

América Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that América Mineiro's form might have worsened.

Juventude has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Juventude's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for América Mineiro, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Juventude than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Juventude, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	20%	80%

América Mineiro - Juventude Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Juventude will win (votes: 4 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
91. Bruno Brigido (G) 31. Fabio 4. Rafa Barcelos 3. Sosa L. 25. Ostchega T. 88. Gustavo Barreto 55. Otavio Goncalves 77. Segovia M. 37. Julio Cesar 20. Paulo Victor 9. Willian Bigode (C)	93. Jandrei (G) 34. Rodrigo Sam (C) 4. Messias 47. Marcos Paulo 13. Aderlan 75. Rai Silva 8. Lucas Mineiro 44. Mandaca 16. Diogo Barbosa 11. Fabio Lima 9. Alan Kardec
Substitutes
71. Cristian 70. Dorna K. 5. Elizari F. 8. Felipe Amaral 32. Filipe Dahora 1. Gustavo (G) 13. Heitor 93. Jorge Jimenez 26. Manoel 99. Marcelo Macola 30. Montes L. 19. William (G)	18. Amarilla L. 17. Castro M. 97. Gabriel Pinheiro 29. Gabriel Pires 70. Juan Christian 5. Luan Martins 72. Lucas Alves 10. MP 30. Patryck 12. Pedro Rocha (G) 2. Rai Ramos 3. Titi
Coaches
Gonzaga Leite D.	Mauricio Barbieri

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Bruno Brigido ↓, Gustavo ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Ostchega T. ↓, Montes L. ↑,
56', Otavio Goncalves 🟨,
57', Diogo Barbosa 🟨,
57', Alan Kardec ↓, Amarilla L. ↑,
57', Mandaca ↓, MP ↑,
58', Lucas Mineiro ↓, Gabriel Pires ↑,
58', Gabriel Pires 🟨,
61', 0 - 1, MP ⚽, Gabriel Pires (A),
62', Otavio Goncalves ↓, Felipe Amaral ↑,
62', Julio Cesar ↓, Dorna K. ↑,
69', Messias ↓, Gabriel Pinheiro ↑,
69', Diogo Barbosa ↓, Patryck ↑,
76', Segovia M. ↓, Marcelo Macola ↑,
77', Fabio Lima ↓, Castro M. ↑,
82', Gustavo Barreto ↓, Heitor ↑,

Preview

A lower-table team faces a stern test hosting a top-ranking contender (ranked 19th in the Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 4th in the Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ PlayoffsFinal)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, América MG won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

América MG may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Juventude holding a narrow advantage.

Confirmed absences for América MG: Ale (Injury) Cassio Meneses (Knee Injury) Eduardo Person (Inactive) Emerson Santos (Injury) Gabriel Domingos (Injury) Gonzalo Mastriani (Inactive) Manoel (Inactive).

Confirmed absences for Juventude: Alisson Safira (Yellow Cards) Allanzinho (Knee Injury) Patryck (Inactive).

Doubtful / questionable for Juventude: Amarilla L. (Inactive).

In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, América MG has recorded 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 12:9 (averaging 1.2:0.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for América MG against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 8:3 goals (averaging 2:0.8 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Juventude	32	17	8	7	37:19	18	59
19	America MG ✔	32	4	5	23	21:53	-32	17

Last Results with these Odds

América Mineiro - the odds 3.2 are the expected chance of winning is 29.25%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- América Mineiro
Brazilian Serie B
18.09.26	Vila Nova - América Mineiro	1:0 ✺
14.09.26	América Mineiro - São Bernardo	0:2 ✺
09.09.26	América Mineiro - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1 ✺
04.09.26	CRB Maceio - América Mineiro	3:1 ✺
30.08.26	América Mineiro - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLWLW
- EC Juventude
Brazilian Serie B
19.09.26	Sport Recife - Juventude	2:1 ✺
13.09.26	Juventude - Athletic Club	0:2 ✺
08.09.26	Criciúma - Juventude	0:2 ✺
05.09.26	Juventude - Atlético Goianiense	2:2 ✺
01.09.26	Londrina - Juventude	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 LLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
29.05.26	Juventude - América Mineiro	3:0
Brazilian Serie A
06.08.22	Juventude - América Mineiro	0:1
16.04.22	América Mineiro - Juventude	4:1
09.10.21	Juventude - América Mineiro	1:1
24.06.21	América Mineiro - Juventude	1:1
Brazilian Serie B
24.11.20	América Mineiro - Juventude	2:1
17.08.20	Juventude - América Mineiro	0:0

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