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Current Win Probability
América RN 25.7%
Draw 28.9%
Náutico Capibaribe 45.5%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
20.4%
26.6%
53%
Our Initial ML Estimation
19.6%
27.7%
55.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
América RN has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in América RN's performance.
Náutico Capibaribe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Náutico Capibaribe might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for América RN than the current prediction. (-6.1%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with América RN that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (+9.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Náutico Capibaribe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
América RN - Náutico Capibaribe Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
45. Lucao (G) 32. Antonio Villa 30. Gabriel Davis 4. Gilvan 44. Giovani Albuquerque 22. Henrique Cesar 14. Hygor 23. Nathan Lourenco 16. Rodriguinho 5. Salazar L. 8. Souza
2. Arnaldo 35. de Sousa Oliveira T. 10. Evandro 11. Fernandinho 43. Guilherme Matos 22. Jeferson Romario (G) 21. Leandro Barcia 4. Rafael Vaz 71. Rodrigues S. F.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
41', Marcos Junior 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Kaua Maranhao ↓, Evandro ↑,
50', Gilvan 🟨,
61', Henrique Cesar ↓, Rafinha ↑,
61', Nathan Lourenco ↓, Norberto ↑,
72', Cleo Silva ↓, Leandro Barcia ↑,
72', Luiz Paulo ↓, de Sousa Oliveira T. ↑,
72', Hygor ↓, Matheuzinho ↑,
72', Giovani Albuquerque ↓, Caua Paixao ↑,
79', Antonio Villa ↓, Wenderson ↑,
83', Marcos Junior ↓, Rodrigues S. F. ↑,
83', Danilo Belao ↓, Arnaldo ↑,
90+1', 1 - 0, Rafinha ⚽,
90+3', Rodriguinho 🟨,
Preview
A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 8 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa do Nordeste (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
América RN is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Recent matches Náutico is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
América RN could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
In this match Náutico is a favorite.
Last 5 head-to-head matches América RN won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5-4.
Including matches at home between the teams América RN won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-0.
Watch
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Lucao (G) 
Salazar L. 
Leandro Barcia 
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